SIX MORE YEARS OF TRUMP?

STILL A BIG CHALLENGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS

50 years ago, Richard Nixon was elected President of the United States. He went down in disgrace because of the Watergate scandal. Until Donald Trump burst on to the scene, Nixon was generally regarded as the President who’d most debased the office in modern times.

Nixon was flawed by his awkward manner and paranoia, seeing enemies around every corner. But his weaknesses seem small compared to Donald Trump. In his midterm campaign, Trump ignored the good news he had to tell on the economy in favour of a racist message to get out his base vote. So toxic did it become that even Fox News refused to run one of the Republican ads. In his demeanour, attacks on the media and institutions Trump increasingly reminds me of the pouting former leader of Italy, Benito Mussolini. Trump is not a fascist, but he threatens the fabric of America. Words have consequences, especially amongst the unstable.

May I also share another nagging thought with you. Whilst in no way questioning the desperation of the people on the Central American refugee “caravan”, the timing was so convenient for Trump. Could it be that these poor people have been manipulated by shadowy figures to begin their march at this time?

This vile campaign turned off voters in the American suburbs and lost him the House of Representatives. But Trump increased the Republican majority in the Senate by getting out his base vote in the more rural areas.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost the House in their first terms and went on to be re-elected. This could well happen to Donald Trump. Democrat morale will be boosted by winning the House, but if they only use their majority to block the President’s measures, spend ages investigating his taxes and links with Russia or even, very foolishly, contemplate impeachment, voters will conclude they are only interested in beltway politics and not their concerns.

Added to that there is a huge debate going on within the Democratic Party about how to deal with Trump. Should they abandon their centre left posture and the acceptance of big corporate funding in favour of the socialist platform advocated by Bernie Sanders? And who is going to be the candidate? It is true that winning candidates for President can emerge from nowhere, but obvious Democratic contenders seem particularly thin on the ground at the moment. Could it be the ageing socialist Bernie Sanders, the reassuring former Vice President Joe Biden, or the narrowly defeated Texas Senate contender Beto O’Rourke?

One feels Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey would give Trump a run for his money, but they have ruled themselves out so far.

Many people who despise Trump’s crudeness nevertheless voted for him because of the economy. If that tanked the Democrats might have a chance. They have the big issue of health care which, polls show, mattered more to voters than immigration.

THE WAR THAT DIDN’T END IN 1918.

I love my history and my mind keeps going back to the momentous events exactly a hundred years ago. The collapse of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires, the consequences of which we are still living with today.

We will rightly celebrate the guns falling silent on the Western Front after all that dreadful suffering. However, it wasn’t the end of the war for many. Conflicts involving Poles, White and Red Russians, Greeks and Turks went on until 1924. Indeed, conflicts arising from the Versailles peace settlement in places like the Balkans, Iraq and Syria are still not resolved.

Lest we forget indeed.

Follow me @Jim HancockUK.

BURNHAM FUELS LABOUR BUDGET ROW.

 

TOPSY TURVY.

 

The budget has plunged Labour into a topsy turvy row over the Chancellor’s income tax cuts.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is generally seen as a Labour moderate. He says he is at a loss to understand why Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, a self-confessed Marxist, is supporting income tax cuts for the rich. McDonnell argues that, whilst the rich gain most, the move will help low income people too. The tax-free personal allowance is being raised to £12,500.

There is no doubt that Philip Hammond has presented Labour with a challenging budget where a commitment to balance the books by 2025 has been abandoned to fund increased spending, principally on the NHS. Unexpectedly high tax revenues have allowed Hammond to shake off his image as “spreadsheet Phil” in favour of the largest fiscal loosening since 2010.

He has clearly been driven to this move by the Prime Minister’s declaration that austerity was over. Privately he probably wanted to keep a bigger war chest than the £15bn he has set aside for a no deal Brexit and heed the warning of his predecessor George Osborne. On Tuesday the former Chancellor warned that trying to outspend Jeremy Corbyn would not help the Conservatives.

So, we carry on spending £50bn a year servicing the National Debt that currently stands at £1.8 trillion.

The decision to relax spending restrictions has meant the government has been able to tackle some of the many problems that years of austerity have created. A hefty amount of cash has been thrown at Universal Credit. UC could be the undoing of the Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey. The Tatton MP has made herself unpopular with the Chancellor with her demands for cash and Hammond notably praised her predecessor Iain Duncan Smith, not her, during his budget speech.

There was cash to ease the High Street crisis with business rate cuts for properties with rateable values under £51,000. Small businesses saw a cut in the apprenticeship levy.

The maze of organisations supporting regeneration continues to grow. Business led development corporations are on their way to join university enterprise zones, Local Enterprise Partnerships and Business Improvement Districts. Oh! for the regional development agencies. Simples!

There was more money for Northern Powerhouse Rail, £10m for a skills project in Manchester and cash for medicine research at Alderley Park.

Hammond was clearly irritated that many of his measures had been leaked in advance and there is speculation this could be his last Budget. I think that would be a shame as he is a steady hand on the tiller. His sin has been to warn about the damaging consequences of Brexit.

CHANNEL 4 DECISION GOOD FOR NORTH.

I welcome the decision of Channel 4 to relocate its headquarters to Leeds. Investment must be made across the North if the Powerhouse is to be fair to all. The eastern side of the Pennines needs a media jobs boost. Just a word of caution though, let’s see if the decision-making moves to Leeds or stays at Horseferry Road in London where the majority of Channel 4 jobs will still be based.

ECONOMY BOOST FOR TRUMP.

I expect the awful Donald Trump to hold the Senate and perhaps even cling on to the House of Representatives in next week’s midterm elections. The economy is booming and for many voters that will matter more than the many failings of this obnoxious man. The Democrats are relying on a big turnout of angered women but lack the vision and leadership to give confidence that they are on course to win the presidency in two years’ time.

Follow me @JimHancockUK

 

TRUMP DYNASTY OR QUICK EXIT ?

 

IMPEACH AT YOUR PERIL.

After the latest act in the extraordinary pantomime that is the Trump presidency, some are concluding that The Donald’s impeachment is just around the corner. I think they are wrong and if by any chance there were right, moves to remove the President, America could face widespread social unrest.

“It’s the economy, stupid”, was the quote hung on the Clinton campaign HQ in 1992 to keep everyone focused on what mattered. It is the same today. It is easy to get distracted by the comings and goings from the White House, but the American economy is doing well under Trump. The Dow Jones Index is at record levels, more jobs are being created, business confidence is high and growth for the year is predicted to be 6%.

Trump’s supporters in middle America either don’t care about the Russia scandal or see it as the liberal elite trying to get their hero. They voted in anger for Trump last autumn and would likely take to the streets if impeachment proceedings were started. That eventuality is unlikely anyway because both Houses of Congress are controlled by the Republicans. They are going to take some persuading to turn on their President despite his past strained relations with the party’s establishment.

So where does the Trump dynasty come from? I merely want us to think more widely about what might happen in America. It remains possible that the multiple investigations into the Russia business turn up some smoking guns that finish Trump or that his erratic behaviour becomes intolerable. It is also possible that the new Chief of Staff, John Kelly, will get a handle on the dysfunctional White House, Trump will quieten down and if the economy remains in decent shape, he could win a second term. After all there is no obvious Democratic Party challenger. Three women are being spoken of; Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama (my choice) and Oprah Winfrey. Trump versus Winfrey would be a colourful race!

If The Donald successfully serves two terms, watch out for his daughter Ivanka who has far more political skill than her father. There, I’ve given you a scenario where Trumps could be in the White House till 2033. What a nightmare, no its goin’ to be great, goin’ to be great!

LABOUR CHALLENGE ON EUROPE.

The excellent people at the British Election Study based at Manchester University have just published their analysis of June’s General Election. One of the most striking findings was that Labour picked up substantial support from Remain voters. This despite the fact that the party’s position on Europe was, and still is, opaque and the leader Jeremy Corbyn has always resented the EU rules that prevent state intervention to protect failing industries unfairly. Despite also the clear offer from the Lib Dems of a second referendum

The vagueness is skilful politics to try to keep on board northern Labour voters worried about immigration and southern ones who want either a soft Brexit or none. On the latter point, a recent survey funded by the Economic and Social Research Council called the Party Members Project showed a majority of Labour members now want a vote on the final EU package. Jeremy Corbyn should be pressed to move to this position. If he refuses he will be exposed for the anti-EU politician he has always been.

Follow me @JimHancockUK.

 

 

 

 

BUSINESS IS READY FOR TRUMP ROLLERCOASTER

JUST JIM 233.

BUSINESS READY FOR TRUMP ROLLERCOASTER.

When the Trump presidency starts next Friday, the business community won’t be alone in wondering what happens next.

During the transition from President Obama to President Trump, economic indicators have generally been up on both sides of the Atlantic. Here the FTSE 100 has had its longest run of successive all-time peaks since it was set up in 1984. One of the reasons is Donald Trump’s commitment to increase infrastructure spending across the United States. Any business traveller will know The Donald is on to something here. Most of America’s airports are tired compared to their gleaming counterparts in Asia and the Middle East. It is the same with US roads and rail. It is the penalty Americans are paying for being first to embrace the car revolution in the post war years.

SME confidence is also strong in the UK. It rose from 2.9 to 8.5 in the last quarter according to the Federation of Small Business. Is this a spill over effect from Trump’s plans when he comes into office? Some economists believe that for every percentage point the US economy grows, advanced economies like the UK grow by 0.8%. The incoming President is planning tax cuts and increased defence spending as well as major infrastructure schemes that we have already discussed.

But business needs to be cautious. Trump is a loose cannon. We have already seen shares in pharmaceuticals crash as a result of the incoming President’s determination to repatriate manufacturing to the US. Bringing jobs home was a key election platform and has already led to Ford deciding to locate a car plant in Michigan instead of Mexico. Defence shares have also been hit by tweets sent out from Trump Tower.

Business will also be aware that the new President will be taking office with controversy swirling around his coiffured blonde hair. Has he done enough to distance himself from his global private interests? Is the team he has selected to run the great offices of state up to the job? Will he get the support of the Republican controlled Senate and House that the raw numbers suggest? Many don’t regard him as a real Republican. Then there is the personal stuff. Is he in thrall to the Russians over his peccadillos, and will he realise that he cannot run the United States by angry tweet.

Business on both sides of the pond have craved more business experience at the top of politics. Well the USA has got one and it will be fascinating to see if Trump can manage a political machine as well as he ran his boardroom. They are very different beasts.

 

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk