MAY FREE TO NEGOTIATE DEAL.

DANCING QUEEN IN CHARGE.

As I forecast last week, The Prime Minister had a good conference. While the hard line Brexiteers raged at the fringe meetings, the mainstream of the party held things together in the hall. Mrs May’s speech showed less of the Maybot and more of a woman trying to do a very hard job in the face of rank treachery from Boris Johnson and his allies.

Direct reference to the Chequers Plan was cleverly avoided, but the success of the Birmingham conference will give room for Mrs May to get a deal with the EU. After that an alliance of sane MPs that may include the likes of Labour’s Lisa Nandy (Wigan) and Caroline Flint (Don Valley) will vote to avoid a No Deal exit.

It has been quite alarming to see the hatred against the EU being expressed at Tory fringe meetings. In the Birmingham bubble these extreme Brexiteers were immune to the dire warnings coming from Vauxhall and Toyota bosses at the Paris Motor Show. If Brexiteers want to dismiss them as “project fear”, try this for “project fact”. A clinical trial of a ground-breaking heart drug has been put on hold by a California company because of Brexit uncertainty.

Against my better judgement I queued for over an hour for the Boris Johnson rally. I hope I witnessed the last hurrah of this discredited man. Hopefully his constant treachery to Mrs May has weakened his support, even amongst the grassroots. The man has no political integrity denouncing the Northern Ireland backstop which he had agreed to in Cabinet last December.

Far more sense was spoken at another fringe meeting I attended where Tory MP Philip Lee, who resigned from the government to promote his call for a second referendum, warned that the Tory Party was heading for a death spiral. We had been shown polling figures which suggested many Tories regarded Brexit as more important than keeping Labour out of office. Lee forecast that Labour would present a powerful case to voters by blaming everything that goes wrong after March 29th on those who had taken us out of the EU.

END OF CONFERENCE SEASON.

As Parliament returns we find the Conservatives just ahead in the polls, a condemnation of Labour effectiveness 18 months after a General Election. Theresa May has every chance of battling on until Brexit is delivered and possibly longer. This is partly because she is seen to be doing her best in difficult circumstances and because the Tories are preparing policies to counter the potentially effective Labour message about the unfairness of Britain. Mrs May’s decision to remove the shackles from council house building shows a preparedness to be flexible on ideology.

Labour had a good conference and are in tune with voters on issues like the railways and utility companies ripping off loyal customers. However, they are handicapped by their flirtation with far left causes and people.

It has been a bad conference season for Lib Dems and moderate Labour MPs. They lack the political strategy and vision to create a new centre force just when its needed most.

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AFTER BREXIT, A CORBYN GOVERNMENT ?

 

 

THE PEOPLE HAVEN’T RISEN UP.

At this turn of the year I wait in vain for any sign that the British public has changed its mind on Brexit in sufficient numbers to encourage a revolt amongst Remain parliamentarians.

So, in looking forward to 2018, I am forced to the depressing conclusion that the year will see some sort of deal hammered out to take us out of the EU, single market, customs union and all.

Without a public reaction against the fiasco unfolding before our eyes, the Tory rebels have only felt able to exercise their influence once. They got called saboteurs for their pains and are unlikely to use their influence again. Tory unity is an abiding reality. Remainers in the Labour Party feel similarly hamstrung by public opinion and the fact that Jeremy Corbyn has always seen the EU as a capitalist conspiracy. In any case he has other fish to fry as I discuss below.

The Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Vince Cable have so far shown themselves totally incapable of mobilising people for their Exit from Brexit campaign. 2018 might see the leadership contested between new Oxford West MP Layla Moran and Deputy Leader Jo Swinson.

The House of Lords will give the Withdrawal Bill a rough passage with courageous peers like Lords Adonis and Heseltine leading the way. However, they are likely to ultimately recognise that Article 50 had a big Commons majority and give way. The Brexit bullies will also threaten the Lords very existence if they don’t bend the knee.

Of most significance in all this is the change of tone coming from Europe. There is a sense that they’ve given up on this troublesome island and want to get the whole thing over with. Providing the terms don’t give encouragement to others to leave, a deal will probably be struck.

It is difficult to see how that will then pass through 27 parliaments and the European Parliament. It will depend how strong the mood is to make an end of the UK membership and move on to the other pressing issues the 27 face.

So, the message to businesses in the North is to prepare for increased costs, communication delays and more bureaucracy in our dealings with Europe and good luck with the search for those global markets.

AFTER BREXIT, PUBLIC SERVICES.

This year we will see a growing demand to get Brexit off the political agenda in order to tackle the huge domestic agenda that is building up. The NHS crisis, a lack of housing, the manifestations of poverty, elderly social care, rail and road congestion and the general post Grenfell distrust of institutions will crowd out Brexit eventually.

The country will be in a far worse place to tackle these issues after we are out of the EU. Watch as the EU membership contributions disappear into the Chancellor’s coffers. £350 million a week for the NHS? Don’t hold your breath.

In charge of dealing with these major social issues will be the Tories who, in 2018, will mark their eight years in power. Have they got the vision, will and energy to solve these problems? The chances are that this year we might begin to see what the post Brexit political landscape might be like. It could see the Tories blamed for Brexit and a greater faith in the radical socialist alternatives offered by Corbyn’s Labour Party.

After the next election we could see a weakened Britain deciding to pay high taxes to finance housing and social care with big cuts in defence including our nuclear deterrent. A flight of business and free market investment might be a price people will be prepared to pay.

OTHER MATTERS IN 2018.

After momentous elections since 2014, 2018 promises a quiet year on the election front in the North. Labour are already totally dominant here and even an all-out election on new boundaries in Manchester won’t change that.

We will have to look to the mid term elections in the United States for excitement. Will they produce sufficient Democrat victories to start a campaign in the Republican Party to deny Donald Trump a second term nomination ? Don’t bet on it, the economy is doing well, and Trump is delivering on some of his crazy policies to the delight of his supporters.

To brighten the gloom, we have a Royal Wedding and World Cup to look forward to although in the latter case the England team may darken our darkness.

Happy New Year!

 

 

SINGLE MARKET CHALLENGE TO CORBYN

 

NO ENEMIES TO THE LEFT.

Jeremy Corbyn does not take easily to adulation. This weekend he would probably prefer to be tending his allotment than hearing “Oh! Jeremy Corbyn”, ringing out from the Brighton conference centre.

But Labour’s surprisingly good performance (they failed to win for the third time by the way) in June’s General Election has confirmed Corbyn in the leadership for years to come if he wants to stay. Except for Alison McGovern’s Labour Campaign for the Single Market, most moderate Labour MPs have become political zombies. They remain because of an admirable sense of loyalty, hoping the tide will turn. I fear they will be disappointed.

In Brighton at the weekend we will see the hard left not only buttress the current leadership in power but take steps to make the left revolution permanent. Corbynistas are set to take control of the Conference Arrangements Committee and National Constitutional Committee. Most people have never heard of these bodies but the former used to be used by New Labour to keep embarrassing subjects like unilateral nuclear disarmament off the agenda. The latter body came into existence after the expulsion of Militant in 1986, but would be unlikely to expel similar people today. “No enemies to the Left” is likely to be the guiding principle.

But Corbyn’s people are looking beyond the day when Jeremy returns to his marrows. The percentage of Labour MPs needed to nominate a leadership candidate is being reduced so that in future left wingers will not need misguided moderates like Frank Field and Margaret Beckett to put them on the ballot paper.

Don’t expect a huge row on the conference floor about all this. The outside chance that the Tories might implode under Brexit strains and Labour come to power in yet another General Election will probably ensure good behaviour.

 

BREXIT REVOLT?

If there is to be trouble for Corbyn, it is likely to come from the Wirral South MP Alison McGovern and her attempt to get the party to commit to staying in the Single Market for ever. The Shadow Brexit Secretary Kier Starmer won a surprising partial victory in getting the Eurosceptic people around Corbyn to commit Labour to the Single Market during the Brexit transition period. McGovern wants to go further with all the implications that has for continued freedom of movement. McGovern belongs to the Blairite Progress faction in the party which has recently suffered a huge financial blow from the total withdrawal of funding by Lord Sainsbury.

LIB DEMS STICK TO THEIR GUNS.

While Labour try to walk the tightrope between Remain and Leave supporters, Tory Cabinet infighting was patched up just ahead of the Prime Minister’s Florence speech. But that was after Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson repeated the lie over a £350m Brexit windfall for the NHS. Let’s remember we do not send £350m to the EU each week. After the rebate and European aid is considered the figure is £161m.

Meanwhile I was in Bournemouth with the Lib Dems. They were celebrating the EU with flags and yellow starred berets. They also reaffirmed their commitment to letting the people vote on the Brexit deal.

It would have been easy for the new leader Vince Cable to have taken the party’s poor election showing as an excuse to abandon this policy which shows no sign at the moment of being popular.

However, talking to representatives, I detected a hope that public opinion will undergo a massive change when the consequences of the botched Brexit talks become apparent. Let us hope that change of view is lead by the North, the area that was sadly deceived by the Boris bombast and which has most to lose from leaving.

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HAMMOND’S WARNING

 

SOUND CHANCELLOR

We would not be able to repeat the 2008 rescue of the banks because our debt and deficit is too high. That was the stark, and under reported, comment from Chancellor Phil Hammond in a recent TV interview.

It didn’t get much attention because Hammond went on to call for an end to Cabinet leaks against him. A bunch of extreme Brexiteers and people measuring up the curtains in No 10 are letting their teenage special advisers loose to brief the media against the Chancellor.

His crimes? Calling for a transitional phase as we leave the EU and opposing a wholesale relaxation of the government’s pay policy. The former suggestion outrages extreme Brexiteers who want to leave the EU as fast as possible and hang the consequences. The latter view frustrates those with an eye on succeeding Theresa May because they believe the best hope for the Tories remaining in power, and them becoming Prime Minister, rests with a Corbyn lite approach to austerity.

In relation to the EU exit bill, Mr Hammond also said that we are not a country that welches on our responsibilities. That is the honourable position we should all support. Unfortunately, Boris Johnson says the EU can “go whistle” for their money. The clown demeans the office of Foreign Secretary.

It might be useful to spell out exactly why the gung ho approach of Johnson is as ill-informed as usual. For those that believe we can exit the EU without a bill, these are some of the facts. We have made EU budget and foreign aid commitments until 2020. We have made loan promises to the Irish and Portuguese governments. We are on the hook for the pensions of EU staff and even for keeping European satellites orbiting. What needs to be determined is our actual share, whether spending can be reprofiled, what’s actually involved and the method of calculation. Only then will we get the bill, but get the bill we will.

If the Chancellor said public sector staff were overpaid, he was wrong but he is right to have a cautious attitude to a pay explosion. He is also right on his approach to Europe. So, he should be supported not undermined by his colleagues. He is a friend of business.

BBC PAY.

Some of the salaries of BBC stars revealed this week are excessive. This is particularly so in the case of people like John Humphrys who gets £600,000 for presenting Today and plenty more hosting conferences. He has admitted he wouldn’t work anywhere else which is just as well as there is no equivalent job in commercial radio really. I certainly can’t see LBC forking out that figure when they have Nick Ferrari. So, the argument that they have to pay him the market rate or lose him doesn’t apply. It is different for the likes of Gary Linaker.

I look forward to other broadcasting channels and companies subjecting themselves to equal transparency in respect of the gender pay gap which has been shown up at the BBC and no doubt applies elsewhere.

One thing I will say for the BBC, their coverage of this awkward subject for them was extensive and balanced.

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