2014 DIDN’T ANSWER THE UK QUESTION.

 

 

The Scottish independence vote and immigration into the UK were dominant themes in 2014, but for all the talk little has been resolved. The Scots voted no but the Scottish National Party could soon be holding the whip hand over a weak minority government at Westminster.

 

Then there’s the issue of our national identity. It is becoming clear that we are not going to be able to stop free movement of labour within the EU. So do we feel so passionately about immigration that we want to risk our economic future outside the EU?

 

Both these questions remain unresolved at the end of a year which has seen much debate on how we should be governed both nationally and in the North. Even before the Scottish vote Chancellor George Osborne had launched his northern powerhouse concept. It was the beginning of a period of extraordinary activity by Osborne on this subject. There can be few hi tech or manufacturing plants in the north of England that has not had a visit from George. It culminated in the devolution deal done with Greater Manchester and his insistence on imposing a mayor for the conurbation to be elected in 2017. Similar deals for Leeds, Sheffield and Liverpool have not been concluded as wrangling continues about elected mayors and leadership.

 

The prospect of a powerful Scotland to our north has stimulated debate on what happens outside the city regions. There are signs that Lancashire’s fourteen councils may be getting their act together to bid for a county region and a Yorkshire Party has been formed. I remain of the view that a council of the whole north is the answer. It is already in embryonic form in organisations like Rail North and One North but it should have powers beyond transport.

 

The economy has continued to recover with unemployment falling along with inflation to the point where people are asking if a 1% inflation rate is a bad thing. Strange days indeed for those of us who lived through the roaring inflation of the 1970’s. But issues like low wages, the budget deficit, low growth in Europe, China and Russia remain dark clouds on the horizon.

 

Politically the year has been dominated by the rise of UKIP. In the North West and Yorkshire they secured six MEPs in the European elections, ending the long European career of Lib Dem Chris Davies in the North West. Tory Sir Robert Atkins also left the stage whilst Labour have a completely new team in the region, although little has been heard from them so far. In Yorkshire two stalwarts Richard Corbett (Labour) and Tim Kirkhope (Conservative) survived the UKIP surge.

 

Labour held its two by elections in the North West (Wythenshawe and Heywood) but UKIP’s John Bickley stood in both and came second, indeed he nearly won in Heywood and Middleton. UKIP also got councillors elected, spectacularly so in Rotherham. People keep asking if they have peaked. Not yet it seems.

 

So where do the parties stand at year end. The Conservatives have had a better year because of the economic recovery but still show no sign of getting enough support to win outright in 2015. David Cameron remains unloved by many of his backbenchers.

 

Ed Miliband has had a poor year as Labour leader, but may have picked on a gem of an idea in suggesting the Tories want to make deep cuts for ideological reasons to create a smaller state. However the people’s minds are largely made up against him and the party will have to try and win despite him.

 

There has been little comfort for the Lib Dems in the north. They did hold on to their councillors in places like South Lakes, Southport and Stockport but look set for the day of reckoning nationally in May. The Greens have begun to benefit by attracting disillusioned Labour and Lib Dem supporters particularly on the issue of fracking.

We marked the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War this year. Our horrors are on a smaller scale than theirs but ISIS and the Taliban remind us that we live in a world where we can land a probe on a distant comet but still resolve our differences in ways little changed from the Dark Ages.

 

Have a peaceful Christmas.

 

 

 

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDA MANIA.

 

 

BUSINESS TO SAVE THE UNION?

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

JUST JIM 118.

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDUM MANIA.

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

 

 

 

 

 

SCOTLAND: THE GAME’S AFOOT!

Alex Salmond will be hoping that the Commonwealth Games now under way in Glasgow will help his flagging campaign for Scottish independence.

But just before the sporting contest got started I had a chance to catch up with him on his last foray into England before referendum day. Salmond seems to like Liverpool. Last year he got a great reception in St George’s Hall when he shamelessly played to Scouse antipathy to London by saying Scots and northerners all suffered from remote government from the capital.

He was at it again last week but the difference is the game’s afoot big time with the referendum now just eight weeks away. The Scottish Labour Party had brought down a red double decker bus with Vote No slogans all over it and parked it outside St George’s Hall. Batteries of TV cameras were in attendance along with BBC luminaries like Alan Little and Laura Kuenssberg.

He was speaking to a smaller audience of northern business people but the message was the same; Scotland and the North suffer economically from centralised government. He prayed in aid the former Liverpool Walton MP Eric Heffer who he claimed supported a young Alex Salmond in his efforts to get Scottish independence in the 1970s. Heffer’s successor Peter Kilfoyle seemed to be of the same mind. He told me he’d been on the Mersey Ferry earlier with Salmond who’d got a warm reception from the passengers. “If I was in Scotland, I’d vote for independence” declared Kilfoyle.

Salmond’s speech consisted of a battery of statistics designed to prove his case for independence but he also sought to address a growing anxiety that we in the North are going to lose out between a powerful Scotland and a dynamic South East of England. He had plans for high speed rail connections between the North and Scotland and wanted northern business people to cooperate in a cross border forum.

The Chancellor has made it clear that there could be no shared currency after independence. Salmond continues to insist that Mr Osborne is bluffing. It is the greatest weakness in his case and one that could be decisive for wavering Scots.

I have always believed that Salmond’s real project was to get the maximum amount of devolved power without full independence. I reminded him that he had wanted a third question on the ballot paper to accommodate this. He denied my suggestion that this showed a secret lack of confidence by the Scottish Nationalists that they could achieve the ultimate prize.

The three main UK parties have all promised further devolution of tax raising power if the Scots stay in the UK, so I suggested to Mr Salmond he would be a winner whichever way the vote goes. He replied that you can never trust the promises of English politicians.

The Commonwealth Games will fill the Scots with pride in what they can do for themselves. This will be followed by commemorations of the start of the First World War when Scots played a noble part in fighting alongside the other nations that made up the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Then the Scots will vote.

WELL DONE WIRRAL!

Over 200,000 golf fans attended the Open at Hoylake with Phil Davies, the leader of Wirral Council and the Liverpool City Region, telling me £75m had been spent in the local economy.

Wirral Council staff were busy lobbying international guests about economic projects ranging from offshore wind to the massive Wirral Waters redevelopment. They are hoping for a major announcement shortly about a car components plant at the end of the M53 to service Halewood, Ellesmere Port and Crewe.

Along with the International Festival of Business promoted by Liverpool Council, our local authorities have done their best to promote the city region to the world this summer.

GORDON BROWN TO SAVE UK….AGAIN!

I met Gordon Brown this week for the first time since he was Prime Minister. He is in many ways Britain’s Richard Nixon. Both clever men with a passion for what politics can achieve. Each had a towering achievement. Nixon’s was the breakthrough between the United States and Red China. Brown’s was keeping our cash machines open in October 2008 and leading the world as it reeled from the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But both men’s periods in office ended disastrously partly because they saw enemies around every corner, enemies that had to be crushed.

For the last four years Brown has largely disappeared from front line politics. He has a role with the United Nations but is rarely seen at Westminster. Indeed in a speech this week to Commons correspondents he made a joke of it. He spoke of needing a tour guide and taking the new members induction course. Dangerous stuff, many think he should have left the Commons on ceasing to be Prime Minister as Tony Blair did.

But as one reporter observed, little has changed since Brown’s time in No 10. We still have senior Cabinet Ministers at each others throats and special advisers resigning.

Brown was anxious to point out that he wasn’t seeking to return to the limelight except to be “a foot soldier” in the campaign against Scottish independence.

There has been speculation as to why Brown has, so far, kept a low profile in the debate. Perhaps it was because the Better Together campaign is headed by Alistair Darling who faced the “forces of Hell” when as Brown’s Chancellor he accurately forecast the coming economic meltdown in the summer of 2008.

We will see whether Brown the foot soldier can keep from standing on people’s toes in the coming weeks. His suggestion that the Prime Minister should debate with Alex Salmond has not gone down well. The role of the Conservative Party in the “No” campaign is really tricky. Better Together fear that as the prospect of the Tories being the largest party after the 2015 General Election rises, so does support for independence. So David Cameron has the dilemma of wanting to put his Prime Ministerial authority behind keeping the UK united without helping Salmond to claim that Scotland keeps getting governments it doesn’t vote for.

Brown is clearly unimpressed with the Better Together campaign’s tactics so far. He says they need to avoid it becoming a British politicians v Scotland issue. Scottish identity is not at issue, nor is the existence of the Scottish Parliament with more devolution on the way. All that has been granted. What this is about is severing all links with the UK.

Despite the latest polls showing 58% support for “No” against 42% Yes, Brown fears that if we don’t wake up, Scottish independence could still happen.

Gordon Brown was always more sympathetic to Northern devolution than Tony Blair. That enthusiasm has not diminished. He warned this week that there could be more constitutional turmoil, even if Scotland rejects independence, unless English regions are given more power. He regretted that the Coalition had not taken the opportunity to address these issues as well as Scottish independence.

I wonder why that choice was made by David Cameron. It was because the Scots, and the Welsh, get their act together and demand devolution.

That’s what we need to do starting at Downtown’s Northern Revolution conference next month.