BOTH SIDES SHOULD STOP THE EURO TRASH TALK

 

IDEAS FOR THE NORTH AFTER BREXIT.

 

It’s a shame that SAS (Strong and Stable) Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker can’t stop the trash talking ahead of their Brexit fight. They should learn from the dignified approach of boxers Anthony Joshua and Wladimir Klitschko who avoided throwing chairs or making lurid threats against each other but delivered a huge success.

The UK government and the EU officials are as bad as each other. Mrs May’s ministers are adopting an arrogant and ignorant approach to the Brexit talks. But talk of bills escalating now to £100 bn from the European side can only serve to turn public opinion in Britain from a 52/48 divide to 60/40 for Leave. Very depressing.

If we do eventually leave, many questions about the future of the North will need to be answered. Among them are what is going to happen when we lose EU regional development funding and agricultural subsidies?

Common Futures Network (CFN) has been peering into the post Brexit world. It is an independent forum of economists, planners, housing experts, engineers and development interests.

In a report out this weekend they note that while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have developed national frameworks, there is no equivalent for England. The report is right to say that the need to address the “English question” was demonstrated by the sharp divisions shown up last June between towns and big cities and the North and London. The destruction of the Regional Development Agencies and their replacement by hardly visible Local Enterprise Partnerships was exactly the wrong thing to do in my opinion.

The CFN report calls for a new regional development fund to replace the EU structural fund and for a comprehensive deal for England’s regions, in addition to its cities and city-regions. This is the right approach. This weekend newly elected city region mayors are starting their work in Merseyside and Greater Manchester. We must wait to see what they achieve and meanwhile turn our attention to the areas of the North outside these conurbations. The CFN report calls for a comprehensive rural programme, a need to identify new development areas to accommodate a population growth of 9 million by 2040 and a drive to manage the growth of the London megaregion.

Let’s hope the government has time to address these issues whilst it is arm wrestling Mr Juncker after the election.

CANDIDATES SLOTTING INTO PLACE.

Nominations close next week for the General Election and the parties have been rushing to choose candidates. Ironically it has been the Conservatives who’ve had most to do because their constituency chairs believed SAS Theresa May when she said there would be no election until 2020. Opposition parties feared she was fibbing and mostly selected candidates last autumn.

This week has seen Esther McVey become the candidate for Tatton. The constituency never fails to have a high-profile MP. Since Neil Hamilton was kicked out twenty years ago, he’s been followed by Martin Bell, George Osborne and now McVey. How her scouse vowels will go down in the leafy lanes of Knutsford remains to be seen.

 Wirral West has made an excellent choice in Knowsley businessman Tony Caldeira who will have no rest from the campaign trail after running for Liverpool City Region Mayor.

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THIS SEVERED, NOT SCEPTERED,ISLE

 

MAY FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.

 

“Hung be the heavens with black, yield day to night. Comets importing change of times and states brandish your crystal tresses in the sky” Henry VI Part I.

It seems an appropriate quote for the week when most opposition MPs stood by whilst the government gained parliamentary authority for a hard Brexit from the EU. It was the week when Nicola Sturgeon followed the historic example of past Scottish kings who made trouble on the border when English minds were focused on the continent. It was the week when there was little progress in forming a Northern Ireland government but plenty of talk about uniting the North and South.

There is no doubt that we are in a period of great constitutional uncertainty, unleashed by last year’s EU referendum. That is not good for business in the North nor is the uncertainty caused by the about turn on National Insurance(NI) contributions. After the pasty tax debacle under George Osborne, will Chancellors never learn? A Budget is not a place to road test ideas, only to withdraw them. The near equalisation of NI was a fair proposal but it was also a breach of an election promise and against the Tory instinct to help the self-employed. It was always going to meet with massive opposition, particularly because Tory backbenchers feel they can throw their weight around because of the feeble opposition.

“NO PROBLEM WITH A REFERENDUM”.

Perhaps Nicola Sturgeon acted on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s latest careless word stream in announcing her intention to try and trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence, although I doubt it.

It is a massive gamble by the normally able leader. Was she pushed into it by SNP zealots? More likely she sees Brexit uncertainty as the last hope for an independent Scotland. The economic case against it is growing as North Sea oil runs out and the Scottish deficit rises. Trading on the vote to Remain in Scotland and the huge uncertainty of the UK Brexit negotiations, Sturgeon wants the vote before the end of the talks.

She is likely to be disappointed. The Prime Minister is unlikely to follow the practice of the Spanish government who just refuse Catalonia an independence vote, but she will likely stall for time. It is most likely a second referendum will follow the UK’s exit from the EU if it is held at all. Much will depend on the level of justifiable anger among Scottish remainers.

The further problem for the SNP is that they tend to exaggerate the level of support they have for remaining in/re-joining the EU. The Commission has made it clear it will only deal with one state, the UK, during the talks. If Scotland were to become independent it might have to join the end of the applicant queue, join the Euro and face the opposition of Spain who don’t want to set a precedent for Catalonian independence.

That is one part of our unhappy state.

SINN FEIN’S SUPPORT POST BREXIT.

The fact that Sinn Fein have nearly got parity with Unionists in the Northern Ireland Assembly following the recent elections is another consequence of the Brexit vote. A united Ireland inside the EU is an increasingly attractive proposition for some waverers. That mood will only be strengthened if a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic is the result of the UK Brexit talks. Another part of our unhappy state.

OVER THE CLIFF.

Finally, we come to the UK where England plays the major part. Ministers make optimistic noises about how it is in everyone’s interest to allow economic reality to overcome politics in the talks. That wasn’t the case in the Referendum where people’s feelings about immigration and alienation overwhelmed the strong economic case for staying in.

Our European friends feel mightily offended. Expect an early and possibly decisive clash on the divorce bill.

 

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BROKEN PROMISE,HEZZA GONE, AND BREXIT IGNORED

 

SHOOT THE MESSENGER.

Budget Day began with the news that Michael Heseltine had been sacked as a government adviser because he had voted to give the British people a meaningful vote on exiting the EU.

What a sad end for a man who has served the North, and Merseyside in particular, well. Let’s hope he continues to come to events held by the Heseltine Institute which bares his name. Last November, in a brilliant analysis, he dared to speculate that public opinion might change its mind on leaving the EU. That view has now cost him his advisory roles. The government will be the losers, but we live in an age when people don’t want to hear from experts.

WHAT! NO BREXIT?

While Hezza was sacked for his views on Brexit, the issue hardly got a mention from Spreadsheet Phil (The Chancellor, Philip Hammond) in the last Budget to be announced in the Spring. It was quite extraordinary that the issue that will have most impact on the British economy didn’t get a mention in the key economic statement. Nick Robinson on the Today programme likened it to a pilot asking passengers if they would like ice in their G and T as the plane was about to hit the mountain!

Why was this? Hammond was a Remainer in the EU referendum and is rightly worried about what faces the British economy in the medium term. Indeed, buried in the government documents that emerge after the Chancellor has sat down is a forecast that Brexit will damage our trade for ten years. Hammond didn’t want to antagonise his hard Brexit MPs by restating his real views. That’s because he had a nasty shock for them; he was going to break a key manifesto promise.

NATIONAL INSURANCE.

We know now that the promise not to increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance was made to fill a “news grid” on a slow day for announcements in the run up to the 2015 General Election.

It dramatically limits any Tory Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in these fast-changing economic times. We will never know if George Osborne would have stuck to it but the increase of 2% in NI contributions for self-employed people has set off a firestorm on the Tory backbenches.

I actually agree with the measure to balance up the position of employed and self-employed workers but the refusal of the Chancellor to acknowledge that he has broken a manifesto pledge is pathetic.

THE BUDGET AND SMALL BUSINESS IN NORTH.

The year’s delay in quarterly tax reporting will be welcomed by small businesses wrestling with the costly change and, contrary to southern media based reporting, many northern businesses will benefit from the review. It was a shame Mr Hammond wasted £435m on measures to cushion the impact on businesses who’ve benefitted from the booming southern economy.

CONCLUSION.

Despite better than expected short term public finance figures, two elephants remain in the Chancellor’s room. They are Brexit and the National Debt. The fact that we are paying £50bn a year in interest is sobering. That is an HS2 every year.

The row over the NI increase will further dampen any talk of a snap election however tempting that might be. The Chancellor’s mauling of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his speech was both surprising and almost cruel.

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JUST JIM 241

 

BROKEN PROMISE AND BREXIT IGNORED.

SHOOT THE MESSANGER.

Budget Day began with the news that Michael Heseltine had been sacked as a government adviser because he had voted to give the British people a meaningful vote on exiting the EU.

What a sad end for a man who has served the North, and Merseyside in particular, well. Let’s hope he continues to come to events held by the Heseltine Institute which bares his name. Last November, in a brilliant analysis, he dared to speculate that public opinion might change its mind on leaving the EU. That view has now cost him his advisory roles. The government will be the losers, but we live in an age when people don’t want to hear from experts.

WHAT! NO BREXIT?

While Hezza was sacked for his views on Brexit, the issue hardly got a mention from Spreadsheet Phil (The Chancellor, Philip Hammond) in the last Budget to be announced in the Spring. It was quite extraordinary that the issue that will have most impact on the British economy didn’t get a mention in the key economic statement. Nick Robinson on the Today programme likened it to a pilot asking passengers if they would like ice in their G and T as the plane was about to hit the mountain!

Why was this? Hammond was a Remainer in the EU referendum and is rightly worried about what faces the British economy in the medium term. Indeed, buried in the government documents that emerge after the Chancellor has sat down is a forecast that Brexit will damage our trade for ten years. Hammond didn’t want to antagonise his hard Brexit MPs by restating his real views. That’s because he had a nasty shock for them; he was going to break a key manifesto promise.

NATIONAL INSURANCE.

We know now that the promise not to increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance was made to fill a “news grid” on a slow day for announcements in the run up to the 2015 General Election.

It dramatically limits any Tory Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in these fast-changing economic times. We will never know if George Osborne would have stuck to it but the increase of 2% in NI contributions for self-employed people has set off a firestorm on the Tory backbenches.

I actually agree with the measure to balance up the position of employed and self-employed workers but the refusal of the Chancellor to acknowledge that he has broken a manifesto pledge is pathetic.

THE BUDGET AND SMALL BUSINESS IN NORTH.

The year’s delay in quarterly tax reporting will be welcomed by small businesses wrestling with the costly change and, contrary to southern media based reporting, many northern businesses will benefit from the review. It was a shame Mr Hammond wasted £435m on measures to cushion the impact on businesses who’ve benefitted from the booming southern economy.

CONCLUSION.

Despite better than expected short term public finance figures, two elephants remain in the Chancellor’s room. They are Brexit and the National Debt. The fact that we are paying £50bn a year in interest is sobering. That is an HS2 every year.

The row over the NI increase will further dampen any talk of a snap election however tempting that might be. The Chancellor’s mauling of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during his speech was both surprising and almost cruel.

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HAMMOND’S CHALLENGING DEBUT.

 

Turbulent times require grey politicians and we have two at the top of government. Theresa May has turned off the daily flow of government initiatives to keep the press happy. A good thing too, the constant announcements from the Blair, Brown and Cameron regimes rarely amounted to much and were initiated in the vain hope of distracting hacks from the real stories.

Her next door neighbour and Chancellor, Philip Hammond makes John Major look exciting. But that’s not a problem for me. There is so much uncertainty in the world that we need a cautious person in charge of the money and that approach is likely to inform next week’s Autumn Statement.

Business in the North will want clear indications around the new Chancellor’s approach to the uncertainties of Brexit. Leavers are crowing at the moment because the economy hasn’t apparently suffered from initial Brexit damage. Let’s wait and see. If Hammond is wise he’ll be preparing the British economy for slower growth and higher inflation as the folly of us leaving the EU becomes more and more apparent. He will be hampered in shaping our economic future by the total disarray that is being revealed within government about what future relationship we actually want with the EU.

On taking office Hammond moved away from his predecessor’s deficit reduction targets. Price Waterhouse Cooper predict a gap of £67bn this year, a huge figure but will it matter to the Chancellor? We seem to be in a time when politicians prefer to forget the legacy they are leaving to future generations. That certainly seems to be the case with the incoming Trump administration in America where he breezily talks about a trillion dollar infrastructure programme.

While the Donald deals with his crumbling bridges, Hammond has a number of areas crying out for cash should he wish to spend it. Adult social care is at the top of the list, followed by the NHS and then councils.

Anyone with eyes to see can observe the plight of Town Halls. Libraries and bus services are being closed in a desperate attempt to support the growing needs of the elderly.

Then there is the housing shortage which is so badly affecting the young. I say young but in many cases married couples in their early thirties are still not able to afford a home of their own. The levels of stamp duty are being identified as a problem that the Chancellor might wish to address.

Then there is the Northern Powerhouse and Transport for the North. The latter is becoming an increasingly important organisation headed up by the former CBI boss John Cridland. He gave an impressive presentation to the North West Business Leadership Team recently about his vision for improved connectivity involving east-west rail and road links and simplified ticketing. The government revealed new route plans for HS2 this week. That project is seventeen years away. Next week the Chancellor needs to support some shorter term wins along the lines of the Cridland plan. It will also be interesting if Philip Hammond mentions the Northern Powerhouse. It was frequently mentioned in Osborne budgets. Despite denials there remains an impression that the May government has cooled on the idea or pivoted to the Midlands Engine.

Wednesday will be an important one for Philip Hammond and could define his whole Chancellorship.