THERE WON’T BE A GENERAL ELECTION.

 

 

REMEMBER THE TRUTH ABOUT TURKEYS AND CHRISTMAS

 

There is much idle talk amongst political commentators about a General Election being just around the corner. Why would the Conservatives, who have just been caught out badly with an unnecessary election, risk another one? In May Labour appeared to be way behind in the polls, now they are level pegging and would probably emerge the largest party.

The argument goes that the Tories would have to hold an election if they changed Prime Minister. This is nonsense. Mrs May is looking more confident and cheerful since her coughing fit in Manchester. It wouldn’t surprise me if she sacks Boris Johnson and Phil Hammond in a reshuffle. But let us suppose for a moment that the Grant Shapps of this world haven’t gone away and force a leadership election. In my view the next Tory Prime Minister takes office and carries on. There is no constitutional requirement to go to the country, nor is there any precedent since 1955 when Eden took over from Churchill and went straight into a General Election.

Since then there have been four occasions when the Prime Minister has changed during a parliament. In 1963 Lord Home (the Jacob Rees Mogg of his day) succeeded Harold Macmillan and waited for the scheduled General Election in 1964. Jim Callaghan took over from Harold Wilson in 1976 and served for three years till defeated in a vote of no confidence. John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and served out the rest of her term before winning the scheduled election in 1992. The Prime Minister most under pressure to seek a fresh mandate was Gordon Brown, but in 2007 he finally decided not to risk it.

Some say the Democratic Unionist Party will renounce their deal with the Tories if the Brexit negotiations require the island of Ireland to be treated as one entity for customs purposes. Possibly, but when will things ever be so good for the DUP again? It will be a long time before they get a billion pounds from a British political party again.

I expect this government to totter on hopelessly divided on Brexit and incapable of a proper negotiation with the European Union. Hopefully there will be a massive change in public opinion on leaving the EU. Then all bets will be off for the future shape of politics in Britain.

THE CATALONIA CONUNDRUM.

I normally have a settled opinion on most political issues but the Catalonia demand for independence really leaves me hopelessly on the fence.

I believe in a European Union where the regions of individual countries have powerful devolved government to bring decision making close to the people and to tackle inequalities like the North South divide. That is why I believed in John Prescott’s model of development agencies held accountable by assemblies.

But regional government should be about those principles of more equal wealth distribution within countries. The Catalan region is the wealthiest in Spain and many supporters of independence don’t want to share their prosperity with poorer areas. In Italy the Northern League has the same attitude to the south of their country.

One thing I am sure of is that using violence against the Catalan people or suspending their devolved powers will solve nothing.

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BIGGEST CHALLENGE YET FOR THE LIB DEMS.

 

THE DISCREDITED CENTRE.

Britain is being run by a Prime Minister constantly looking over her shoulder at hard line Brexiteer Tories who want to not only get us out of the European Union but use the withdrawal legislation to dismantle many elements of social justice.

The Opposition is led by a left wing populist who promises the earth to public sector workers and students and who has skilfully captured the anti-establishment mood. However, a Jeremy Corbyn government combined with Brexit would have a hugely damaging impact on business and the economy.

So where is the centre ground when we need them? I’ll find some of them in Bournemouth this weekend under their new leader Vince Cable. The others may be in Brighton the week after at the Labour conference. You won’t see them on the platform, even Andy Burnham, the newly elected leader of Greater Manchester, is struggling for a slot. The moderate Labour MPs are being made to pay for their treachery against Jeremy Corbyn.

It is difficult for moderates in the Labour Party. They are embarrassed by Corbyn’s “relative” success. And it is relative, it was Labour’s third successive defeat. They have not won a General Election for twelve years. They want the party to oppose Brexit but are worried about breaking promises to the electorate and have a leader who is probably a secret Leaver. Then there is the Blair problem. The most articulate spokesman for their point of view is discredited in too many people’s eyes to get a real hearing.

Both the Labour centre, and the Lib Dems, are also burdened by the legacy of the financial crash of ten years ago. A moderate Labour government was in charge under Gordon Brown when it happened and the Liberal Democrats were part of a Coalition that used austerity to clear up the mess afterwards. The Tories are always expected to be tough on economics but the crash and its aftermath left Labour and the Lib Dems vulnerable to the populist rhetoric of Nigel Farage. He used the European Union as a lightening conductor for people’s mistrust of bankers, the EU and centrist politicians whose wishy-washy politics had let them down.

And yet my gut feeling remains that a majority of the British people, and certainly business, want centre ground politics. Economic realism with a social conscience and if we can sort immigration out, continued membership of the EU.

The Lib Dems are too weak at the moment for the Labour centre to take them seriously as a partner for a new party. Vince Cable’s task this weekend in Bournemouth is to show that they have a strategy to win back seats and be open to the idea of a new centre party that can offer an alternative to Brexiteer Toryism of hard left socialism.

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EU TRIGGER FIRED….NOW THE REALITY.

 

OVER THE EDGE

as like the old days in the House of Commons this week. I observed MPs debating till midnight, the corridors full of people, Whips working overtime. They need not have worried. The vote to take us out of the European Union was easily passed as we moved from being a representative democracy to a plebiscitary one. Perhaps next we could have a referendum on hanging. That could bring us into line with Donald Trump’s America and its position on capital punishment.

The Donald may soon be at Westminster on a State Visit if the government ignore the will of the people. Two million petition signatories oppose it, nearly the same as the margin that will take us out of the EU. But there are times to pray in aid the people’s view and times to ignore it.

There were some impressive speeches in the two-day debate that triggered article 50. The chamber was well attended hour after hour. But for me the most significant proceedings took place in a committee room on Wednesday. Sir Ivan Rogers was the UK’s Permanent Representative to the EU until he resigned in January amid suggestions he was opposed to Brexit.

He faced the European Scrutiny Committee which was stuffed with arch Eurosceptic MPs waiting to get their teeth into this example of the smug European elite that have been ruling us for decades. Actually, by the end of proceedings even Sir Bill Cash, who’s devoted his life to achieve what happened in the Commons this week, had to thank Sir Ivan for what he had said.

Why was that? Well the former envoy gave a very skilful performance. He insisted he was the servant of his political masters but he also spelt out some hard truths that those who are caught up in the euphoria of triggering Article 50 need to think about.

Sir Ivan is steeped in the workings of the EU and pleaded with MPs to understand the mindset of the 27 countries as they approached these Brexit negotiations. They were alarmed, saddened and bewildered by the decision. The UK has put a bomb under the current 5 year carefully crafted EU budget. For instance, one Eastern European country would see 12% cut from its structural funding budget. Promises made to its people would be broken.

Although there was clamour to get on with it, Sir Ivan suggested talks might not get properly underway until after the French elections. Then there is the huge issue of whether the divorce talks can run in parallel with the discussions on future treaty arrangements.

There is a big agenda just separating from the EU, never mind the future. Among the issues, the status of EU nationals in Britain and Europe, the location of UK based EU institutions, the status of international treaties dependent on our EU membership and most contentious of all the financial settlement. There have been suggestions this is £30bn covering matters like our final budget settlement and pension payments.

Discussion of what comes after may have to wait till all that is settled. Then there will be the whole question of giving us a worse deal than a member of the EU to preserve its existence. This was all too much for Manchester Labour MP, the Eurosceptic Graham Stringer. He wanted to know what would happen if we quickly concluded that no deal was possible and we just walked away.

Sir Ivan said the consequences could be very serious. For instance, British medicines could not be sold in Europe because all the underpinning regulatory structures would no longer exist.

With Labour all over the place, it is only the Lib Dems offering a clear line that whatever comes out of these negotiations, must be put to the British people giving us a chance to think again.

 

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SHOOT THE MESSENGERS AND THE EXPERTS!

 

Any hope that the New Year would bring signs that we are not heading over the Brexit cliff were quickly dashed with the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers. The UK envoy to the European Union became exasperated that the May government had no plan, was guilty of muddled thinking and that the British team to conduct the exit talks was seriously underpowered for the ten year task.

So in this post truth age we neither want to hear from experts or the messengers that bring them. As much as I support a second referendum on the ultimate package, I think our European colleagues would be so fed up with us by 2019 that they would want us out anyway. This must be the year when we try to reverse the process but there is no sign of the centre left coalition that would be needed.

Meanwhile the European Union and the wider world with which we are negotiating could change dramatically in 2017. We are about to see the most unpredictable change of power in America that anyone can remember. Donald Trump is certainly making his mark already. Ford’s decision to cancel a major car plant in Mexico and build it in Michigan shows that American business takes him seriously.

In Europe the question will be whether populism has peaked. They could triumph in Italy and the Netherlands but right winger François Fillon should see off Marine Le Pen and Angela Merkel is likely to see off her opponents in Germany.

In the North we will see the first elected mayors for the city regions of Greater Manchester and Liverpool.

It seems certain that Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram will win but there will be interest in the size of the UKIP vote. The party’s new leader Paul Nuttall needs to show what policies, other than getting out of the EU, the party stands for. Will they develop credible policies on health, housing and crime to woo northern voters from the weak Labour Party. A parliamentary test will come in Copeland where another moderate Labour MP has concluded the cause is hopeless and walked away.

Good luck to Hull in its year as Capital of Culture. Let us hope it is a sign of tangible benefits coming to the Northern Powerhouse. Plans for trans Pennine rail improvements and single public transport ticketing need to move from the drawing boards to reality.

It will be Theresa May’s first full year in power. She is in danger of being completely overwhelmed by the Brexit process even though there are major challenges at home in the NHS, elderly care, housing and immigration. She may lose popularity but her political opponents are weak. Labour is seen as irrelevant by most people. The Lib Dems have only just begun the road to recovery and UKIP are untested on the domestic front.

On the world stage expect ISIS to be weakened but that could mean their battle hardened members returning to the West to inflict more atrocities in our cities. Meanwhile China will be keeping a wary eye on a possible unlikely warming of relations between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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