Tag: Lib Dem

ARE WE AT THE END OF OUR TEATHER WITH LIB DEMS?

 

 

Last year in a Scottish local council ward a penguin got more votes than the Liberal Democrat candidate.

Actually it was an independent dressed in a penguin suit, nevertheless across the country they lost 74 councillors in elections that mirrored their performance in recent polls across the north of England.

 

Whether the site of sassanach Lib Dems heading for Glasgow this weekend for their party conference will appease the Tartan Army of Scottish voters remains to be seen.

 

The decision of the “catastrophically depressed” Lib Dem MP Sarah Teather to quit at the next election might be dismissed as a fit of pique by a sacked minister, but her declared reasons for going bear some examination. This is because they address the major problems Lib Dems have had in Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester since the coalition was formed.

 

Before 2010 the party managed to be an organisation that disaffected Tories could vote for in the South while fed up Labour voters could switch to the Lib Dems on the basis that they were sort of on the left and were reasonably progressive.

 

Now in office the Lib Dems have been tainted in many of their ex supporters eyes by the difficult decisions of government. It will ultimately be a decision for the whole electorate in 2015 whether the pupil premium, lifting the poorest out of income tax and other Lib Dem backed measures will be enough to save them from electoral oblivion, but Teather has highlighted some problems they will face in getting a reasonable vote in the North and Scotland.

 

Her central charge is that Nick Clegg’s party no longer fights hard enough on issues like social justice and immigration. She cites Lib Dem support for a cap on welfare, a £1000 visa charge plan for immigrants and the government’s vans touring London urging illegal immigrants to “go home or face arrest.”

 

A large number of Lib Dems are deeply worried about association with the Conservatives but feel it is a price worth paying to have some influence in office. However one has the impression that there is a faction who have enjoyed their time in office and are quite happy with the party moving right.

 

The Lib Dem conference is by far and away the most democratic of the three gatherings we shall witness this autumn. It remains a place where real policy is made but there is nothing on the agenda about the strategy for the crucial period coming up for the party.

Do they stick with the coalition till the end? What will they do if the Tories emerge as the largest party in 2015?

 

There will be plenty of talk about this in the bars of Glasgow but on the conference floor the theme will be the creation of jobs. The Lib Dems say a million have been created since 2010 and they want a million more. They want to double the number of businesses and train the apprentices for them. They will be debating an end to Britain’s four boat Trident nuclear submarine fleet and only want an in/out EU referendum if more powers are planned to be devolved to Brussels.

 

Good progressive stuff but the hand of the party’s right can be seen in the resolution on whether to restore the 50% tax rate for those earning £150,000. Conference can vote to endorse George Osborne’s cut to 45% or go back to 50% only if a review indicates that the tax take would exceed the cost of its introduction.

 

The improving economy is strengthening the position of right wing Lib Dems who would feel quite comfortable with another deal with the Tories, but that approach will be hard to sell in working class areas of the North.

 

 

YOUR MEP IS BEING CHOSEN NOW

 

 

You may think the verdict on who will represent Yorkshire and the North West in Europe will be decided on May 22nd next year when the European Parliamentary elections take place.

 

In fact 90% of the decision making is taking place now as the political parties in the two regions are deciding in what order their candidates will be on the party lists. Next May voters will only decide which party to vote for. Who gets elected will depend on the total per percentage vote the party gets in the whole Yorkshire and North West regions. Therefore your place on the list is crucial. If you are below fourth, forget it.

 

So how is this playing out, who is likely to represent the North in the European Parliament 2014-19 when crucial decisions are taken about the shape of the EU and our membership of it?

 

UKIP are on course to win these elections. They are on a role domestically and this set of elections will be fought on their territory. It will be an ideal platform for their charismatic leader Nigel Farage to taunt the other parties with his clear message, vote for us to get out of the EU without the ambiguities of renegotiating the terms.

 

NORTH WEST EURO CANDIDATES.

 

The North West has eight members in the European Parliament. There is a chance they could take three places next May. Their sitting North West MEP is Merseysider Paul Nuttall. He is arguably the UKIP politician with the highest profile after Farage with his frequent national media appearances as Deputy Leader of his party. Unlike the Tories and Labour he is not guaranteed top place on the list by virtue of being a sitting MEP but is certain to be elected in number one spot by North West UKIP members. If UKIP do get two others elected, the will be complete unknowns to most people. I am told that we should keep our eyes on Louise Bowers, a former Tory mayor of Congleton and Andrew Fairfoul, a Warrington teacher.

 

The Conservatives will be losing one of the great characters in North West politics. The cricket loving Sir Robert Atkins is retiring. A former Preston MP and Minister under John Major he represented a dying breed of Tories who wholeheartedly supported our membership of the EU. So top of the Tory list will be Saj Karrim who first represented the Lib Dems in Europe from 2004-07 before defecting to the Conservatives. He recently spoke powerfully at a Downtown debate on the value of the EU in trade negotiations with countries like India. Jackie Foster will be second on the list. She is the comeback girl having represented the North West from 1999-04 when she was defeated only to return five years later. If the Tories win their bitter battle with UKIP for a third seat, then seven other candidates are currently being voted on. They include Deborah Dunleavy who failed to take Bolton North East in the General Election having been fast tracked by David Cameron. Another is Cheshire West and Chester councillor Charles Fifield.

 

Labour will also be losing a long serving member. Brian Simpson first sat in the European Parliament for Cheshire East in 1989. He has done good work for the region on transport matters, but is now standing down. Arlene McCarthy MEP is guaranteed top slot on the list and there is a fierce battle going on for the number two position. Former Liverpool councillor Theresa Griffin has tried for years to win a European seat but she faces formidable opposition from former mayor of Manchester Afzal Khan and Kevin Doran Editor of the informative NorthWestinEurope.org website.

 

Will Chris Davies retain his seat for the Lib Dems? A dedicated campaigner on European issues, often controversial and a fell runner, Chris has represented the North West for 15 years. His party is at a low ebb.

He’ll be hoping there are enough Lib Dem votes in places like Cumbria, East Lancashire and Liverpool to keep him in Brussels.

 

Another party at a low ebb is the BNP and it is very likely that their leader Nick Griffin will lose especially because UKIP are making the running on immigration.

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER EURO CANDIDATES.

 

In this vast region which embraces Leeds, The Dales and Hull the Tories have lost Edward McMillan Scott who defected to the Lib Dems. Tim Kirkhope will top the list with seven candidates contesting the vital second place on the list.

 

Labour had a poor showing when these elections were last contested in 2009 under Gordon Brown’s leadership. Linda McAvan will be hoping to be joined by a second Labour representative.

 

UKIP’s Godfrey Bloom is almost certain to be re-elected despite his views about the employability of women of child bearing age and is likely to be joined by a second UKIP representative.

 

As in the North West there has to be a question mark over continued Lib Dem representation. Sitting MEP Diana Wallis announced she was standing down after failing to be elected as President of the European Parliament.

 

Andrew Brons, elected as a BNP MEP has now joined the British Democrats and is hopefully destined for political oblivion.

 

PARTY POLITICS, A MINORITY SPORT

MANCHESTER CENTRAL

In 1942 the voters of Poplar South could be forgiven for a lack of interest in a by election. The Nazis were at the gates of Stalingrad and Rommel was threatening to conquer Egypt. 8% turned out.

 

Manchester Central’s voters had no such military distractions last week as they recorded the lowest turnout since those desperate wartime days.

 

The quality of candidates was high. Lucy Powell, Labour’s first woman MP, has already worked in key posts in the Labour Party. Marc Ramsbottom is a serious and able leader of the Lib Dem opposition on Manchester Council. Matthew Sephton deserves a seat with better prospects for the Conservatives.

 

The economy is still flat lining. Many people in Manchester Central are suffering benefit and service cuts and yet they didn’t see the parliamentary game as one they wanted to take part in. It is true that Labour were always going to hold this seat, but the lack of uncertainty about the result cannot be the full explanation for such apathy. People are losing faith that conventional politics can make a difference.

A POLICE COMMISSIONER’S LOT

Low polls were also a feature of the elections for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCC) across the North. From Leeds to Liverpool the turnout averaged around 13%.

 

Mark Burns-Williamson won a run off with an Independent to become the PCC in West Yorkshire. One of his first tasks will be to appoint a new Chief Constable now that Norman Bettison is stepping down following the recent Hillsborough revelations.

 

In the rest of the Downtown patch, our new PCCs face the stark realities of cuts as they set police budgets against a very tough deadline.

 

Both Tony Lloyd (Greater Manchester) and Jane Kennedy (Merseyside) won on the first ballot for Labour. Keep an eye on Kennedy who is set to make some waves as she streamlines the bloated structure of the old police authority.

 

Given their poll ratings, the Conservatives can be reasonably pleased that they won two PCC races in the North West. In Cheshire John Dwyer saw off Labour’s John Stockton in a second round run off. A former Assistant Chief Constable, some are forecasting a difficult relationship with the current Chief Constable David Whatton. Meanwhile In Cumbria magistrate and Tory candidate Richard Rhodes also won a second round ballot run off against Labour candidate Patrick Leonard.

 

But the Conservatives couldn’t repeat their success in Lancashire, soon to be the scene for a hotly contested battle for control of County Hall. Conservative candidate Tim Ashton took Labour’s Clive Grunshaw to a second ballot but was edged out.

 

The Liberal Democrats got no PCC elected in the whole of England and Wales. In the Downtown area they came bottom of the poll in West Yorkshire,Lancashire and Cumbria and next to bottom in Cheshire. On Merseyside Paula Keaveney was five thousand votes behind her ex Lib Dem colleague Kieron Reid standing as an independent. Only in Greater Manchester did former copper Matt Gallagher put up a reasonable showing.

 

I was with two of the North West’s top election experts this week. They both forecast that Nick Clegg would be deposed by Vince Cable before the next election and the Lib Dems would leave the Tories as a minority government for six to twelve months before 2015.

PRESTON PASSION AWARD

The highlight of the North West Royal Television Society Awards for me was when the Best Live Event category was won by the BBC for their coverage of The Preston Passion. It recognised both the commitment of the BBC and the people of Preston for a great effort in poor weather last Easter.

A SWING TO THE RIGHT

 

A SWING TO THE RIGHT.

 

How long will the Lib Dem grass roots allow Nick Clegg to stay in a coalition where right wing Tory backbenchers call all the shots? David Cameron has had to placate them this week and his Lib Dem partners just look on in dismay.

 

I don’t think enough has been said about the sacking of Ken Clarke, for that is what it is. I know he can still attend Cabinet as Minister Without Portfolio. Without power or influence more like. I’m surprised he didn’t resign outright. For a man who has been Chancellor and Home Secretary to hang on in this way is undignified. It gives a cloak of respectability to what has really happened.

 

The last Tory with a sane view on our relations with the European Union (and prison policy) has been removed. So now the decks are clear for the vicious circle to accelerate. The anti EU press will continue to mislead the public about Europe, the politicians will respond and before we know it we will be having an in-out referendum. The nation will vote to come out of the EU, then stand by for an economic slump that will make this one look like prosperity.

 

But back to the reshuffle and further evidence of a swing to the right. The new Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin has been brought in to smooth the way for a third runway at Heathrow which will ignore the strong case to develop our regional airports. Promises of this being the greenest government yet were already withering, and that’s set to continue with Owen Paterson in charge at Environment. By the way hard luck to Liverpool’s Peter Cranie on not getting the leadership of the Green Party this week.

 

Sayeeda Warsi is another Cabinet Minister who should have made a clean break. The former Tory Chairman has taken a minor job at the Foreign Office. It’s a blow for ethnic minority representation in the government. I liked her down to earth approach and she impressed a gathering of Tory grass roots members meeting in Liverpool recently. It’s a shame.

 

Tory talent in the North West has been almost totally overlooked by the Prime Minister with the exception of the spiky and talented Esther McVey. The Wirral West MP is a rare asset for the Conservative Party. A media savvy business woman from Merseyside she’s got an interesting first job in government. She’s a Minister at Work and Pensions. The Secretary of State Iain Duncan Smith refused to move and will fight to implement his universal credit benefit system. The Treasury is worried about the new system’s dependence on a vast computer network. We know from past experience that central government and big computer systems mean a big price tag and almost certain failure.

 

McVey is the only North West promotion. What about Pendle’s Andrew Stephenson, Preston North’s Ben Wallace and Lancaster’s Eric Ollerenshaw. He’s an older politician with good local government experience. Instead Eric Pickles is rewarded for his abolition of the North West Development Agency and more seriously the Audit Commission with an extension of his term. I suppose his value is as a bit of northern rough among the southern posh boys.