SECOND REFERENDUM FRONT AT ELECTION

REVERSE THIS MADNESS

Let’s ask the burning question for the North of England. People outside most of the large cities voted Leave in justified rage at being ignored. Would they vote Leave again after a week when billions of pounds have been written off our companies and banks? When investment decisions that could bring vital work to the very areas that voted Leave are being put off? When we have seen division grow between young and old, North and South, Scotland and England and Nigel Farage disgrace Britain with another loutish performance in the European Parliament? Even more worryingly some people feel the Brexit vote has given them a licence to openly abuse people from ethnic communities. We have seen the Vice Chancellor of Manchester University having to issue a statement trying to calm fears amongst her international staff about their jobs and European research funding.

In that list I have not even mentioned the political turmoil which is both adding to the crisis but may just give us an opportunity to stop this Brexit insanity in its tracks.

The Labour Party could be on the brink of extinction. Since the decline of traditional industries and mass union membership it has seen a struggle between its socialist and social democratic wings. When the struggle for the leadership is resolved, it is possible that Jeremy Corbyn will be re-elected as leader by the socialist grass roots completing the split between the parliamentary party and activists.

At the same time the Conservatives will have a new leader and Prime Minister who is likely to want a General Election mandate. It was significant that the party’s officials accelerated the timetable so that an October General Election is now possible before the winter sets in.

There is a growing chance that the new Prime Minister will be Theresa May. Although on the Remain side, if she lets it be known that she would appoint Andrea Ledsom from Leave to a new post of Cabinet Minister for Brexit, it may be enough to overcome Boris Johnson.

If a General Election is on the way, there is only one option for social democrats in the Labour Party and that is to link up with Liberal Democrats, Greens and any pro EU Tories who want to join in a grand alliance to ask for a second referendum. One candidate would stand against the Tories in each seat. A normal election would be possible in Scotland due to the strong pro European stance of the people and parties there. The Lib Dems are reported to be gaining members at the rate of one a minute following leader Tim Farron’s pledge to campaign to rejoin the EU. We don’t need to rejoin though, just stop the years of complex, acrimonious unravelling straight away now that people can see they were fooled. We have not triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which would probably put us beyond the point of no return.

There is an obvious risk that such a stance could see UKIP winning many seats accusing a “second referendum” alliance of ignoring the democratic wish of the people. However the situation is so serious that such a charge has to be taken on board and answered in the following way.

The brazen Brexiteers have already been found out on their promises for NHS funding, their ability to cut immigration and the claim that Turkey would be joining the EU soon. Remain forecasts of a massive economic impact on the markets has been proved right. Assertions that Brexit had no idea what shape our relations with the EU would look like have also been proved right and most fundamental of all the Remain campaign was right that our standing in the world would be diminished as we turned inwards to fight ourselves.

Europe must reform and democratise, the issue of immigration must be addressed, the arrogant Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the Commission) must be replaced. But we must stay in the EU.

Cross party coalitions came together in the 1918 and 1931 elections. Grave times call for exceptional measures. All pro EU politicians must unite now or we are on the road to a painful exit from Europe and Conservative governments stretching long into the future.

CAN LABOUR EVER WIN AGAIN ?

 

 

I’m not sure Labour can ever win another General Election, certainly under Corbyn and possibly anyone else.

The industrial and trade union base went long ago. Their traditional working class support is flirting with UKIP or if they are old, voting Tory. Scotland has fallen to the SNP and if the Scots want an alternative, the Tory Ruth Davidson is a better bet than Kezia Dugdale, the latest unknown to lead the Labour Party in Scotland.

Then there are the vicious Tories. Not content with smashing the Lib Dems, they are now targeting Labour with a string of legislative measures that will weaken them like individual voter registration, the reduction in parliamentary seats and the requirement for trade unionists to opt in to paying the political levy.

Then we come to the director of the polling organisation Britain Thinks. I heard Deborah Mattinson speaking at a Labour conference in London last weekend. Delegates had just heard party leader Jeremy Corbyn speaking. He was calm, unspun and true as ever to his socialist principles. He gave unilateralism a rest, instead coming up with the idea that companies should be prevented from paying dividends to their shareholders if they didn’t pay the living wage.

He was given a good round of applause and then the delegates spent the rest of the day looking at the mountain, nay the north face of the Eiger, that they would have to climb to win power again. They will need to win an additional 106 seats and 40% of the total vote to win in 2020. Last year they needed a swing of 5% in the marginal seats, next time it will be 10 %.

Now here’s the killer for Labour. In 2015 they could rely on large numbers of Liberal Democrats coming across. Next time 4 out of the 5 new voters Labour will need will have to be people who voted Conservative last time. How likely are Tory voters in Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Bolton West and Morley to vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

Next the age problem. Older people vote and are increasingly voting Tory whereas the young who are more left leaning are far less inclined to go to the polling station.

Now I want to turn to a man with a low profile but who had a big job in last year’s election, Tom Baldwin. He was Ed Miliband’s senior adviser. He spoke some home truths to the activists, like don’t trash your record and expect to win. He was referring to the way the record of three time election winner Tony Blair has been heavily criticised by Labour activists keen to distance themselves from “New Labour”. Baldwin says that was why the Tories were able to blame the last Labour government for messing up the economy when in fact it was the victim of a global crash.

It gives me no satisfaction at all to write this. I want a vibrant democracy with two or three parties vying for power under a fair election system. But if we are not to face the prospect of the Tories in power for twenty years, what is to be done? Labour MPs who believe in “heart and head” social democracy need to sink their differences with Liberal Democrats and moderate Greens. Then they need to form a new party to represent the centre left where the British people have been in 1945, 1964, 1974 and for thirteen years from 1997.

 

FREE DEBATE AT LABOUR CONFERENCE?

 

30 YEARS AGO……

Exactly thirty years ago Neil Kinnock launched his famous attack on Liverpool’s Militant Tendency at the party conference. His reference to taxis being hired by a Labour council to take redundancy notices to the city’s council staff has become legendary or infamous depending on your point of view. The speech marked the beginning of a necessary purge of Trotskyist infiltration. It also marked the last time the Labour conference was a showcase for disunity.

For over a decade the Labour conference had laid bare its divisions for the TV audience to see. That had to be stopped. However over the years, and particularly after Tony Blair’s public relations team took over in 1994, all dissent was marginalised. Real debate was discouraged and policy was formed in the National Policy Forum which was firmly in the grip of the leadership. It was an overreaction to the mayhem of 1975-85.

So what’s going to happen this weekend now that the party is lead by Jeremy Corbyn, the arch dissenter. He wants real debate in a democratically run party. Let’s hope we get it. The public might respond well. They seem to have liked his style at Prime Minister’s Questions. On the other hand a demonstration of total policy incoherence might turn them away. That was what worried the party managers under Kinnock, Blair, Brown and Ed Miliband.

I am certainly looking forward to my second visit to the south coast to see the rebel of thirty years standing now in charge. Some are speculating this will be his only conference as leader, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Over the next few months leading up to important elections next May, Corbyn has the ability to rally different sections of the electorate to his new way of doing politics. There are many Scots who deserted the party out of frustration with austerity rather than any desire for independence. If they come back in numbers in the Scottish Parliament elections, Corbyn’s critics will be muted. Then there are Green supporters impressed by his environmental policies and general radicalism. But the largest group of all are the young, the poor, people disillusioned with politics or who have never engaged. Some were mobilised by the Corbyn campaign. Will they stay around? Will others join them? Will they watch the coverage of a party conference for the first time?

LIB DEMS AND CORBYN.

Whilst Scots, Greens and radicals might rally to Corbyn, the Liberal Democrats were hoping this week that they could occupy, what they saw as, the huge gap opening up in the middle of politics. Although at one fringe meeting after another I heard speakers saying they weren’t in the centre, they were Liberals they nevertheless believe the Tories have swung right because they are no longer in Coalition with them. With Corbyn off to the left, they see an opportunity. What they must avoid is opening the door too easily to defecting Labour MPs. They mostly won’t be true Liberals, just careerists trying to save their seats.

If Labour’s conference in Brighton is going to return to real debate, it is only fair to point out that the Lib Dems have always maintained that tradition. The debate last Monday on the Trident nuclear weapons system was open and excellent.

Perhaps the Conservatives will try it in Manchester next month but don’t hold your breath.

 

LIB DEM PEER MAY BID FOR GREATER MANCHESTER MAYOR.

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LABOUR ONLY FOR INTERIM GREATER MANCHESTER MAYOR?

 

Must we presume that the interim mayor of Greater Manchester has to come from the Labour Party? May we not consider the possibility that another party or an independent could hold this post? Might it not be healthy for the all powerful Manchester City Council to have to deal with someone not of their stripe, holding a post they never wanted?

 

The Labour dominated Greater Manchester Combined Authority has drawn up a job spec for the person they will appoint as interim mayor to fill in until a directly elected mayor is chosen by the people in 2017. The person has to be an elected member of one of the ten councils or an MP. Two other post holders, the elected mayor of Salford and the Police and Crime Commissioner for Greater Manchester are specifically included (which may be very significant in the latter case).

 

It is unlikely that many rank and file councillors will fancy challenging their leaders for the post and MPs have a General Election to fight. So the chances are that the interim leader will either be a current council leader, the Elected Mayor of Salford (Ian Stewart) or Police Commissioner Tony Lloyd. the current chair of The current chair of the Combined Authority Lord Smith of Wigan might still go for it but the hot money is on another Labour man, Tony Lloyd. He would lose his job under a Labour government as the party is pledged to axe the post of crime commissioner. It’s unlikely people like Sir Richard Leese (Manchester) and Jim McMahon (Oldham) will be interested in this interim position. They are aware that a Labour government might not implement the permanent post and even the Tories may be distracted in another minority government.

 

It is open to Sean Anstee, the Tory leader of Trafford to put himself forward. Good luck with that.

 

Then we come to Stockport where the Liberal Democrats head up a minority administration. The leader Sue Derbyshire shows no sign of wanting to stand for interim mayor, but her colleague Lord David Goddard may do.

 

David Goddard has had a roller coaster ride in politics. Once of the Labour party, he switched to the Lib Dems and became council leader. He lost his seat in 2012 in a targeted campaign by Labour, won it back two years later before becoming a peer . As an Offerton councillor he is eligible to be the interim mayor and is reluctant for the post to go to a Labour politician by default.

 

Goddard has been an active member of the Combined Authority(C.A), helping to negotiate the City Deal, the first C.A Environment Commissioner and represented the nine local authorities on the Airport Board during crucial investment talks . He was a leading member of the successful campaign against plans for a congestion charge in Greater Manchester.

 

That was a rare defeat for Sir Richard Leese and Chief Executive Sir Howard Bernstein but it was an indication that Goddard is prepared to stand up to the mighty Manchester.

 

The Combined Authority plans to have an interim mayor in place by June and we must see what happens if Lord Goddard finally puts himself forward. Let’s hope he does because it is important, if the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election does take place in 2017,that it is not seen as just a rubber stamp for a member of the Labour hierarchy.