HUNTING RENNARD THE FOX

 

HUNTING RENNARD THE FOX.

 

Reynard The Fox was a mythical character in medieval Europe, always able to talk his way out of trouble. Whether Lib Dem peer Chris Rennard can do the same seems doubtful. The Master of Hounds, Nick Clegg, has set the dogs on him.

 

The reasons why the this sexual harassment controversy has reached such intensity aren’t hard to find. Rennard has been an active member of the Liberal/Liberal Democrat party since the age of 12 when he was at the Liverpool Blue Coat School.

 

Most Lib Dem MPs owe their seats to his campaigning genius learnt from Trevor Jones on Liverpool Council in the 1970s. The first was David Alton in Liverpool Edge Hill in 1979, he carried on by winning Tory strongholds like Christchurch in 1993 and doubled the number of Lib Dem MPs in 1997.

 

Many of those MPs now sit in the Lords and are determined to stick by their man. Nick Clegg seems equally determined to force Rennard out. Clegg has little time for historic figures in the party who remember the days when Liberal MPs could all get into one taxi. Clegg wants his party to be the permanent power brokers in endless coalitions. For that to happen he needs the party to be free of its image of being unfriendly to women. That impression is caused by the dearth of female Lib Dem MPs and the party’s unwillingness to embrace all women short lists to rectify this.

 

Prominent North West figures have waded into the argument with various degrees of success. Chris Davies, the region’s Lib Dem MEP, rapidly withdrew remarks seeking to minimise what Lord Rennard had done. On the other hand Lord Tony Greaves from Lancashire called for a reconciliation procedure rather than the Clegg inspired disciplinary committee which is bound to find that Rennard brought the party into disrepute for not apologising for something he claims he didn’t do. A recipe for endless court action.

 

Many have mocked the rules of the Lib Dems which have made it difficult for Clegg to act. But I think their democratic structure is to their credit.

 

The Tory and Labour parties have no such safeguards. Remember how the trap door opened for Peter Mandelson and even more outrageously for Peter Cruddas, the Treasurer of the Tory Party, who was forced to resign on charges that soon proved to be spurious.

 

MPs ON THE MOVE.

 

As the General Election comes into view we need to keep our eye on our northern MPs, particularly the older ones, as they decide whether they are going to retire.

 

The excellent Labour MP for Ellesmere Port and Neston Andrew Miller has decided to quit. That will be a loss to the business community as he takes a strong interest in promoting jobs particularly in the high end scientific area. He promoted a major event on that subject in the Commons this week that I will be reporting on in a future blog.

 

Whether the Ribble Valley MP Nigel Evans will contest the next election depends on the outcome of the court case he faces, but he continues with his duties, attending the event for North West business that I referred to above. He currently sits as an Independent MP but he tells me the Tories have not moved to choose a new candidate. That leaves open the possibility of his return to the fold for next year.

 

In the neighbouring constituency of Blackburn there is to be an all woman shortlist to choose Jack Straw’s successor as Labour candidate. This is good news for Kate Hollern, the leader of the council who wants to be only the third MP to represent the seat since 1945.

 

Finally Labour are moving quickly to fill the vacancy in Wythenshawe and Sale East created by the death of Paul Goggins. Polling will be on Feb 13th with UKIP hoping to challenge for second place behind Labour. Mike Kane, former advisor to Cabinet Minister James Purnell is mentioned as a possible standard bearer for Labour.

 

 

 

THE ECONOMIC ELEPHANT AND VOTER BRIBES

 

 

Each party conference was marked by a headline catching bribe for the voters. Nick Clegg’s was child care. George Osborne made an unfunded promise to freeze fuel duty and most tempting of all Ed Miliband went to war with the gas and electricity companies.

 

But we shouldn’t be distracted by these give-aways. We need to remember what the Chancellor said about the economy. The battle to turn it round was “not even close to being over.” So the downward pressure on public sector spending would continue. Within a day the Mayor of Liverpool Joe Anderson was warning that within two years the city would only be able to run mandatory services. Other councils across the North privately fear the same thing.

 

I have attended a dozen fringe meetings in Glasgow, Brighton and Manchester over the last three weeks. The one that made the deepest impression on me was one addressed by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Here are some of the startling observations he made. It will be 2030 before we get debt levels back to where they were in 2008. By next year we will only be half way to budget balance. Total spending is not falling. In the past we have been used to two years of cuts, soon we will have had eight.

 

People at the fringe meeting called for party conferences to conduct fundamental debates about public sector pay, tax levels and the funding of health and schools and not to be occasions for a Dutch auction of promises about relatively small amounts of money. Some hope.

 

With the exception of the Lib Dems, party conferences are a showcase for Ministers and Shadow Ministers and an opportunity for lobbyists and journalists to get out of London for a few weeks. It was particularly noticeable in Manchester how the Tory grass root members have been marginalised. That may explain their enthusiasm for the meeting in Manchester Town Hall addressed by Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader.

 

So where has the conference season left us? Ed Miliband is strengthened by his promise to freeze gas and electricity prices. People understand the concept and it chimes with his campaign on squeezed living standards.

 

Nick Clegg has got his party used to its role in government. No more jokes about sandals and beards. The party now favours fracking, nuclear power and austerity. Vince Cable is a somewhat diminished figure.

 

Blue water has opened up for the Conservatives. Choosing the conference slogan “For Hard working People” Cameron staked out his position and with Ed Miliband moving to the left, we might have an old fashioned election battle.

 

TORY CONFERENCE GOSSIP.

Tory councillors from Lancashire and West Cheshire at the conference were distracted by noises off. GEOFF DRIVER, leader of the Conservatives at County Hall  narrowly avoided a no confidence vote by his own group just after conference. Meanwhile MIKE JONES leadership  of West Cheshire and Chester Council is hanging in the balance. Councillors of all parties last night rejected plans for a major student village development on the outskirts of Chester. Although councillors made their decision on planning grounds the issue has deeply divided the ruling Conservative group. More on both these issues on my blog next week.

 

UKIP are expected to get at least two MEPs in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber next May, so top slot on the party list is more important than ever. Merseyside based MEP JACKIE FOSTER has topped the poll among Conservative North West members, with SAJ KARIM MEP in second place. The Tories will have a real battle on with UKIP to get a third MEP but that would be Penrith farmer Kevin Beattie.

 

Tories in Hazel Grove are talking up their chances because, as forecast here recently, ANDREW STUNELL confirmed he would be standing down as Lib Dem MP. Will the new candidate, local woman Lisa Smart, be able to prevent the seat returning to the Tories after two decades?

 

And finally the Mayor of Oldham JOHN HUDSON (Tory Saddleworth South) says he’s not dismayed to lose high flying Chief Executive CHARLIE PARKER to Westminster Council. Parker is credited with turning the council around. Hudson believes they will get some good applicants on the back of that.

 

ARE WE AT THE END OF OUR TEATHER WITH LIB DEMS?

 

 

Last year in a Scottish local council ward a penguin got more votes than the Liberal Democrat candidate.

Actually it was an independent dressed in a penguin suit, nevertheless across the country they lost 74 councillors in elections that mirrored their performance in recent polls across the north of England.

 

Whether the site of sassanach Lib Dems heading for Glasgow this weekend for their party conference will appease the Tartan Army of Scottish voters remains to be seen.

 

The decision of the “catastrophically depressed” Lib Dem MP Sarah Teather to quit at the next election might be dismissed as a fit of pique by a sacked minister, but her declared reasons for going bear some examination. This is because they address the major problems Lib Dems have had in Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester since the coalition was formed.

 

Before 2010 the party managed to be an organisation that disaffected Tories could vote for in the South while fed up Labour voters could switch to the Lib Dems on the basis that they were sort of on the left and were reasonably progressive.

 

Now in office the Lib Dems have been tainted in many of their ex supporters eyes by the difficult decisions of government. It will ultimately be a decision for the whole electorate in 2015 whether the pupil premium, lifting the poorest out of income tax and other Lib Dem backed measures will be enough to save them from electoral oblivion, but Teather has highlighted some problems they will face in getting a reasonable vote in the North and Scotland.

 

Her central charge is that Nick Clegg’s party no longer fights hard enough on issues like social justice and immigration. She cites Lib Dem support for a cap on welfare, a £1000 visa charge plan for immigrants and the government’s vans touring London urging illegal immigrants to “go home or face arrest.”

 

A large number of Lib Dems are deeply worried about association with the Conservatives but feel it is a price worth paying to have some influence in office. However one has the impression that there is a faction who have enjoyed their time in office and are quite happy with the party moving right.

 

The Lib Dem conference is by far and away the most democratic of the three gatherings we shall witness this autumn. It remains a place where real policy is made but there is nothing on the agenda about the strategy for the crucial period coming up for the party.

Do they stick with the coalition till the end? What will they do if the Tories emerge as the largest party in 2015?

 

There will be plenty of talk about this in the bars of Glasgow but on the conference floor the theme will be the creation of jobs. The Lib Dems say a million have been created since 2010 and they want a million more. They want to double the number of businesses and train the apprentices for them. They will be debating an end to Britain’s four boat Trident nuclear submarine fleet and only want an in/out EU referendum if more powers are planned to be devolved to Brussels.

 

Good progressive stuff but the hand of the party’s right can be seen in the resolution on whether to restore the 50% tax rate for those earning £150,000. Conference can vote to endorse George Osborne’s cut to 45% or go back to 50% only if a review indicates that the tax take would exceed the cost of its introduction.

 

The improving economy is strengthening the position of right wing Lib Dems who would feel quite comfortable with another deal with the Tories, but that approach will be hard to sell in working class areas of the North.

 

 

WIND IN ED’S SAILS?

WIND IN ED’S SAILS?

The image of the private sector has taken a mighty knock. Whether it’s the sight of police and troops rescuing Olympic security from G4S or the tattered reputation of our banks.

Will this have a lasting effect on our politics with Ed Miliband catching the wind of public opinion if it moves to the left?

Public sector bad, private sector good, has always been a simplistic mantra but recent events could mean a more sympathetic hearing for the role of the state. Ed is sending out subtle signals. He was the first Labour leader to speak at the Durham Miners Gala in 23 years.

It’s a good time to take the political temperature as parliament goes on holiday yet again.

I know the government has run out of things to do except reform the Lords (or not as the case may be) but MPs seem to be doing very little legislating at the moment.

Off in mid February, off at Easter, two weeks for the Jubilee and now barely a month later, they are off again. When a political commentator claimed the other day that these were dog days at Westminster with MPs yearning to get away on their holidays, I nearly drove off the road.

July used to be the month of soaring tempers and temperatures as the government sought to get bills on the statute book before a long break leading up to a short wash up session before the Queen’s Speech in November. MPs were often involved in all night sittings and were genuinely exhausted.

We can forget the soaring temperatures, but the rhythm of the parliamentary year has changed too. With the Queen’s Speech now in May, the pressure point for legislation is Easter.

It is true that a September session has been introduced because of public outrage at the July to October break. I also agree that MPs work hard in their constituencies, need to be off when their kids are on holiday and that there is little point in debating bills in the early hours of the morning.

However I think things have swung too far the other way making claims that there isn’t parliamentary time for this and that, risible.

On the subject of parliamentary time, how long does the Labour Party want to debate the Lords’ Bill in the House of Commons? The party’s brazen political manoeuvring reached new heights this week as the Opposition was asked how many extra days it wanted to discuss the measure. Luciana Berger, the normally eloquent Liverpool Wavertree MP, was reduced to mumbling about it being a matter for discussion behind the Speaker’s Chair.

Helped by Tory rebels, it is Labour quibbling over the number of days needed for debate that is likely to scupper a reform that the party has been committed to for a long time.

The row over the Lords forced another photo opportunity out of the Prime Minister and Nick Clegg designed to reassure the markets that Britain has a stable government. I’m sure that’s true. Indeed what struck me is that Cameron and Clegg are getting closer and closer.

While they are huddling together in the economic storm, they are in danger of becoming isolated from their grassroots. This is particularly the case with Cameron. He must be worried that the ranks of the Tory rebels on the Lords’ bill were swollen by large numbers of Conservatives who only entered parliament in 2010.

They were prepared to risk future promotion and incur Flashman’s temper because many of them have fallen out of love with Cameron. They blame him for not winning the election outright and even doubt if he is a real Tory.

As far as Nick Clegg is concerned, he is testing the patience of his dwindling army of grassroots activists. They fear calamity at the next election with the Lib Dems blamed for tuition fees and with no voting or Lords’ reform achieved.

It will be an interesting party conference seasons but first the Olympics. I’m looking forward to seeing all those soldiers….and the athletes.

MAYOR JOE’s TEAM

Mayor Joe addressed Liverpool councillors for nearly an hour on Wednesday night. It was the first opportunity to see how the elected mayor would interact with the 90 councillors whose power has been much reduced.

Influence is shifting to bodies like the Mayor of Liverpool’s Development Corporation. I can report that the following will be providing “strategic direction for the city’s economy.” Sir Michael Bibby, Bibby Line; Claire Dove Blackburne House; Liv Garfield Openreach; Robert Hough Local Enterprise Partnership; Sir Howard Newby Liverpool University; Julia Unwin, Rowntree Foundation; and entrepreneur David Wade Smith. Pat Richie (CEO of the Homes and Community Agency) will also be joining subject to confirmation by his board.