ULSTER OR NORTHERN POWERHOUSE?

 

Where does the billion pound bribe for the Democratic Unionist Party leave the drive for devolution in the North? It is not just a question of where the government will put its money. It is also a question of political purpose.

There are plenty of reasons to fear that the May government will take their eye off the Northern Powerhouse (NP) project, but as I found out this week, the answer may lie within our own resources.

First, let’s look at the downside. The NP Minister, Andrew Percy, quit at the reshuffle. That suggests he didn’t see the post as being regarded as important in Whitehall. Then comes news that David Brown is leaving his post as Chief Executive of Transport for the North (TfN) to go to the private sector. Brown has done a good job in translating all the fine talk around the NP into something the public can see as a benefit. TfN will soon have statutory status as the voice of northern transport, will have a big say in rail franchising and this autumn common ticketing will start to be rolled out on our buses and trains. But will Brown’s successor be as good?

In further assessing the drag factors on the NP we have a weak government which will be forced to pay more attention to Belfast than Bradford. Brexit will consume vast amounts of ministers’ time until it hopefully grinds to a halt. While Greater Manchester and Merseyside have got their act together on elected mayors, the rest of the North is frankly a structural mess. George Osborne, the architect of the NP now spends his time using the London Evening Standard to get revenge on Theresa May for sacking him.

It is no wonder that Lord Adonis, head of the National Infrastructure Commission, joined top business organisations in demanding a high priority for infrastructure investment.

I think the government is distracted and we will need to raise our game to compete with those deal makers from Northern Ireland. For instance, why is it going to take till the autumn of 2018 to get the North’s Strategic Transport Plan approved? This emerged at a major transport conference in Manchester this week. We have talked for years about the need to upgrade east-west rail and road links. That is a higher priority for us than HS2. We know this, the government knows that is our position. David Brown told me this week that we’ve never had a statutory plan before. Well OK but delay on our part will just play into the hands of a government distracted by Brussels and Belfast. A government who sent a clearly unprepared Minister to the Manchester conference. In post for eight days junior transport minister, Jesse Norman, had no answer at all to a question about poor quality rolling stock in the North.

Things looked up thereafter though. Council leaders set out an impressive list of priorities. Cumbria wants to improve coastal rail, Lancashire the M65 corridor. Liverpool; resolve the opposition to links between the motorway network and the port. Cheshire; Crewe regeneration around the HS2 hub and Manchester preparing Piccadilly station for the combination of HS2, the northern Hub and improved links to Leeds.

Mayor Andy Burnham, quickly settling into his role as the voice of Greater Manchester, called for HS2 and Northern Powerhouse rail to be done together and Emma Degg, the new boss of the North West Business Leadership Team called for smaller northern towns to be remembered. It was a timely call in an era when there is a fixation on big cities.

There remains a huge gap between transport investment in the South East and North because it is much easier to satisfy Treasury cost benefit criteria when you can produce millions of commuters for any scheme. The conference was told of a vision and validate approach that should be adopted to get northern transport investment off the ground. The private sector will have a vital role in this.

So, we need to use existing powers to keep the Northern Powerhouse moving forward and if you want an acid test of how things are going look out for this. Will Northern Powerhouse rail or Crossrail 2 in London be first to get approval?

Follow me @JimHancockUK

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘ELF AND SAFETY JOKE ANYONE ?

 

CHANGING TIMES.

The General Election result indicated a turning of a corner in the sentiment of the nation, the reaction to the dreadful Grenfell Tower fire, confirmed it.

The tide of anti-State, anti EU feeling is on the ebb. People are beginning to realise that a lot of “red tape” is there to protect people and keep them safe. I doubt if ministers will be calling for three regulations to be abolished for every new one in the future. That’s not to say business should not continue to identify silly or bureaucratic impediments to commercial transactions. But where regulations are in place to protect people, we should recognise their purpose and remember the poor victims of Grenfell Tower.

On Europe, a YouGov poll this month showed most people now think it was wrong for us to vote to leave the EU.

Tory and Labour politicians need to take this changing world into account. There are signs from the Queen’s Speech that the Conservatives will modify their austerity agenda and use some of the £23bn slack in the government coffers available to 2021 to fund schools and public sector pay rises.

It is going to be down to Labour to reflect the changing sentiments on Europe. Apart from that poll, there were two developments this week which show the stupidity of leaving the EU. On the very first day of the Brexit talks we had a taste of the EU’s strength. The idea that we could negotiate future trade in parallel with the divorce terms was blown out of the water. Then came the Queen’s Speech and the revelation that eight huge pieces of legislation are going to be needed over the next two years to implement this wholly negative exercise.

So, whilst we fail to deal with pressing issues like the future of social care, MPs will be up all night repatriating powers over nuclear waste or money laundering which having a glaring need to be done across the EU.

THE CROWNLESS QUEEN.

The low-key State Opening of Parliament seemed appropriate. The Queen didn’t ride to Westminster in her golden carriage and the crown rested on a table beside the monarch as she delivered the paired down proposals of the government. She looked as if she was being delayed in getting to Ascot and the whole occasion which usually anticipates a new government with interesting proposals was flat and dreary.

There is considerable anxiety that government momentum behind the Northern Powerhouse has drained away. We’ll get a better sense of that following an important transport conference in Manchester on Monday. But in the Queen’s Speech I only noticed a bill to extend HS2 from Birmingham to Crewe and a reference to the new industrial strategy.

Business needs to speak out about issues around skills, productivity and the Northern Powerhouse. I don’t know if bosses felt restrained by the election campaign. They shouldn’t have been because that is the very time to speak out. Anyway, the net result has been that business and the economy were topics that dare not speak their name.

Theresa May could stumble out of office at any time but I still think she’ll last two years. People who think Boris Johnson is the answer should listen to his car crash performance on “PM” on Radio 4 on Wednesday. His “wing it” approach to policy was effectively exposed. The nation should tire of this clown.

 

SHOOT THE MESSENGERS AND THE EXPERTS!

 

Any hope that the New Year would bring signs that we are not heading over the Brexit cliff were quickly dashed with the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers. The UK envoy to the European Union became exasperated that the May government had no plan, was guilty of muddled thinking and that the British team to conduct the exit talks was seriously underpowered for the ten year task.

So in this post truth age we neither want to hear from experts or the messengers that bring them. As much as I support a second referendum on the ultimate package, I think our European colleagues would be so fed up with us by 2019 that they would want us out anyway. This must be the year when we try to reverse the process but there is no sign of the centre left coalition that would be needed.

Meanwhile the European Union and the wider world with which we are negotiating could change dramatically in 2017. We are about to see the most unpredictable change of power in America that anyone can remember. Donald Trump is certainly making his mark already. Ford’s decision to cancel a major car plant in Mexico and build it in Michigan shows that American business takes him seriously.

In Europe the question will be whether populism has peaked. They could triumph in Italy and the Netherlands but right winger François Fillon should see off Marine Le Pen and Angela Merkel is likely to see off her opponents in Germany.

In the North we will see the first elected mayors for the city regions of Greater Manchester and Liverpool.

It seems certain that Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram will win but there will be interest in the size of the UKIP vote. The party’s new leader Paul Nuttall needs to show what policies, other than getting out of the EU, the party stands for. Will they develop credible policies on health, housing and crime to woo northern voters from the weak Labour Party. A parliamentary test will come in Copeland where another moderate Labour MP has concluded the cause is hopeless and walked away.

Good luck to Hull in its year as Capital of Culture. Let us hope it is a sign of tangible benefits coming to the Northern Powerhouse. Plans for trans Pennine rail improvements and single public transport ticketing need to move from the drawing boards to reality.

It will be Theresa May’s first full year in power. She is in danger of being completely overwhelmed by the Brexit process even though there are major challenges at home in the NHS, elderly care, housing and immigration. She may lose popularity but her political opponents are weak. Labour is seen as irrelevant by most people. The Lib Dems have only just begun the road to recovery and UKIP are untested on the domestic front.

On the world stage expect ISIS to be weakened but that could mean their battle hardened members returning to the West to inflict more atrocities in our cities. Meanwhile China will be keeping a wary eye on a possible unlikely warming of relations between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

HAMMOND’S CHALLENGING DEBUT.

 

Turbulent times require grey politicians and we have two at the top of government. Theresa May has turned off the daily flow of government initiatives to keep the press happy. A good thing too, the constant announcements from the Blair, Brown and Cameron regimes rarely amounted to much and were initiated in the vain hope of distracting hacks from the real stories.

Her next door neighbour and Chancellor, Philip Hammond makes John Major look exciting. But that’s not a problem for me. There is so much uncertainty in the world that we need a cautious person in charge of the money and that approach is likely to inform next week’s Autumn Statement.

Business in the North will want clear indications around the new Chancellor’s approach to the uncertainties of Brexit. Leavers are crowing at the moment because the economy hasn’t apparently suffered from initial Brexit damage. Let’s wait and see. If Hammond is wise he’ll be preparing the British economy for slower growth and higher inflation as the folly of us leaving the EU becomes more and more apparent. He will be hampered in shaping our economic future by the total disarray that is being revealed within government about what future relationship we actually want with the EU.

On taking office Hammond moved away from his predecessor’s deficit reduction targets. Price Waterhouse Cooper predict a gap of £67bn this year, a huge figure but will it matter to the Chancellor? We seem to be in a time when politicians prefer to forget the legacy they are leaving to future generations. That certainly seems to be the case with the incoming Trump administration in America where he breezily talks about a trillion dollar infrastructure programme.

While the Donald deals with his crumbling bridges, Hammond has a number of areas crying out for cash should he wish to spend it. Adult social care is at the top of the list, followed by the NHS and then councils.

Anyone with eyes to see can observe the plight of Town Halls. Libraries and bus services are being closed in a desperate attempt to support the growing needs of the elderly.

Then there is the housing shortage which is so badly affecting the young. I say young but in many cases married couples in their early thirties are still not able to afford a home of their own. The levels of stamp duty are being identified as a problem that the Chancellor might wish to address.

Then there is the Northern Powerhouse and Transport for the North. The latter is becoming an increasingly important organisation headed up by the former CBI boss John Cridland. He gave an impressive presentation to the North West Business Leadership Team recently about his vision for improved connectivity involving east-west rail and road links and simplified ticketing. The government revealed new route plans for HS2 this week. That project is seventeen years away. Next week the Chancellor needs to support some shorter term wins along the lines of the Cridland plan. It will also be interesting if Philip Hammond mentions the Northern Powerhouse. It was frequently mentioned in Osborne budgets. Despite denials there remains an impression that the May government has cooled on the idea or pivoted to the Midlands Engine.

Wednesday will be an important one for Philip Hammond and could define his whole Chancellorship.