UK SET FOR BREAK UP.

 

The strain on the unity of the UK is very great in the wake of the General Election. Scotland has voted massively for the Scottish National Party. England has reacted by backing the Conservatives. The Scots complaint that they never vote Tory but frequently get Conservative governments has been reinforced.
The fact that they ignored Labour’s warnings that a vote for the SNP would let in David Cameron, merely shows their total determination to express their frustration.
Although the SNP’s MPs have been elected to the Westminster parliament and the election was not a vote for a new independence referendum; the probable dynamics of the next few years point in that direction.
Far from being the power brokers at Westminster, the SNP will be shut out in the face of this unexpected Tory majority. Furthermore we will now have a referendum on our membership of the European Union. As I have argued before, there is a real prospect of a no vote. If the SNP isn’t already demanding a second independence referendum; they certainly will do as they are dragged out of the EU by English votes.
I thought the Tories would get the credit for the improvement in the economy but didn’t expect them to be rewarded with a majority. Nor did I expect the Lib Dems to be so brutally punished for their decision to go into coalition.
The parties performances across the North of England told the tale of the night. Labour did well in areas like Merseyside. They increased their majorities and took seats like Chester and Wirral West; although in the latter case the loss of Esther McVey as the sole Tory voice for the area may prove a disadvantage.
Around the Pennines Labour’s results were poor. Ed Balls defeat on the outskirts of Leeds attracted most attention but Labour missed target seats from Pendle to Pudsey.
The Lib Dems terrible night saw them lose their trio of seats from Withington to Hazel Grove. Ukip got impressive votes but no cigar in terms of seats.
Now we wait to see where the Tories will make twelve billions of cuts and whether the Northern Powerhouse will be fully developed across the north.

LATE SURGE FOR CAMERON?

 

THE CAMPAIGN.

David Cameron doesn’t really deserve to “win” next Thursday’s General Election, but the Conservatives will probably be the largest party and have first dibs at forming a government.

The Tory campaign has lurched from defending their economic record, to attacking Ed Miliband as a backstabber and latterly depicting Nicola Sturgeon as a female version of William Wallace set to pillage England. There have been a series of retail promises on things like the right to buy and inheritance tax. Some will impress voters but most will ask how the sums will add up. So a bit of a vision less mess really. However it is usually the economy that clinches it, and despite some dodgy figures this week, most people will probably want to give the Conservatives another term to sort things out. However this may be a very late decision by people, on polling day itself, not detected by the opinion polls. As they lift the stubby pencil, is it the devil we know or Miliband?

Ed Miliband has had a good campaign. No gaffs and an increasingly relaxed style combined with the theme of fairness which has been delivered well. However he is coming from a long way back in terms of public approval, people remember the Brown years and he is facing potential wipe out in Scotland. With those handicaps his route to Downing Street looks tortuous indeed. We have to go back to 1923 to find a party that didn’t have most MPs, forming a government. Miliband wouldn’t want to do a deal with the SNP that had just destroyed his party in Scotland and a pact with “the others” looks as incredible in 2015 as it did in 2010.

THE NORTHERN BATTLEGROUND.

Here are the seats to look out for in Downtown land from Leeds to Liverpool in order of their marginality.

Bolton West Lab maj 92: Should have been won by the Conservatives last time. Cameron tells us he only needs 23 seats for a majority. This is one of them.

Lancaster and Fleetwood Con maj 333: Labour’s No 1 target.

Wirral South Lab maj: The Tories held this seat up till 97 and Cameron needs this as part of his 23 for victory.

Morecambe and Lunesdale Con maj 866: Another must win Lancashire seat for Labour.

Weaver Vale Con maj 991: A Cheshire Labour target near George Osborne’s Tatton constituency.

Warrington South Con maj 1553: An intense campaign being waged here as Labour’s task gets harder.

Pudsey Con maj 1659: Labour should take this sort of seat on the outskirts of Leeds in a good year.

Burnley Lib Dem maj 1818: Very tough for the Lib Dems against Labour.

Manchester Withington Lib Dem maj 1894: The Lib Dems are pleading with voters not to make the city a one party Labour state at parliamentary and council level. They may be disappointed.

There are other Labour targets where the Tories have majorities over two thousand. They are Blackpool North, Bury North, Wirral West, Chester, Keithley, Pendle and Rossendale.

The Lib Dems are in a fierce battle with the Tories in Hazel grove and Cheadle and UKIP hope to land a sole North West victory in Heywood and Middleton.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: BOLTON WEST.

Julie Hilling’s victory here for Labour in 2010 did great damage to David Cameron’s stature in the eyes of many of his backbenchers. He was not a winner as John Major and Margaret Thatcher had been. The failure to secure an overall majority was because of Cameron’s inability to win seats like this.

Susan Williams, the former leader of Trafford Council, was a great candidate. It will be a tough task for the Conservative standard bearer this time, Chris Green, even though he only has to overturn a majority of 92 in this, the most middle class of the three Bolton seats.

 

MOVE THE BORDER TO THE MERSEY AND HUMBER !

 

NICOLA’S MAGIC TOUCH.

How do we feel Oop North about moving the Scottish border southwards? Then we could benefit from the inspirational leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and banish the male and stale politicians who have failed to grasp the full vision of northern devolution?

Nicola is wooing us. Her manifesto calls for a significant increase in infrastructure spending in the North of England. She wants HS2 started from Scotland down to northern England at the same time as the track is laid to Birmingham. She wants a Northern Cities Fund and concludes “while a strong London is good a strong Newcastle and Leeds is better.”

I am not actually serious about the border but we do need a counter argument to the Tory shroud waving about the SNP and how they will dictate the UK budget in a deal with Labour. Firstly I think Labour would rather rule as a minority or with the Lib Dems, Irish and Greens than reach an accommodation with the party that has nearly wiped them out in Scotland. For Miliband to work with the SNP could mean the permanent weakening of Labour north of the border.

Secondly Tory grandees like Lord Tebbitt and Michael Forsyth have warned the Prime Minister that stoking up English fears and resentment about the Scots plays right into the separatist cause.

DON’T LET ME MEET ORDINARY VOTERS.

I used to love the campaign trail, seeing our leaders face to face with the people they sought to represent and being heckled at open to all public meetings.

I am not planning to attend any visits by the party leaders to the North this time because I refuse to be kettled in a press pen to observe Dave, Ed and Nick surrounded by adoring activists keeping everyone else out. We need Mrs Duffy of Rochdale (Gordon Brown’s bigoted woman) to break through the ring and tell them what she thinks.

The campaign managers thinks it makes good telly. Do they really think people are so stupid as to think that their leaders are being universally welcomed in every town. TV producers have a duty to pan away from the tight throng of supporters and show the excluded public beyond.

On a more optimistic note I am pleased to report that hustings in individual seats are alive and well. I’ve hosted ones in Bolton and Hazel Grove with Withington and Chester to come. People still want to turn up at church halls to see their candidates in the flesh rather than communicating via new media.

THE FORGOTTEN ELECTION.

Did you know that on May 7th we’ll also be having a big round of local council elections? There has been virtually no media coverage of the contests for the tier of government that actually delivers most of the services that matter to us. Furthermore with all the promises made about ring fencing the NHS and not putting up VAT and National Insurance, it is likely local government will bear the brunt of the further cuts promised by most parties after the election.

A third of all the metro councils in West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and Merseyside are up for election. Labour could gain Calderdale and Kirklees and threaten the Tories in Trafford and the Lib dems in Stockport.

There are all out elections in the unitary councils of Blackpool, East and West Cheshire. The latter is the most interesting with Conservative control under threat from Labour. A third of councillors are up for election in the other unitaries, Blackburn and Warrington.

There are full or a third elections in district councils in Lancashire and other parts of the North.

SEAT FOCUS: MORECAMBE AND LUNESDALE.

With a majority of under a thousand Tory David Morris has a fight on his hands to prevent Manchester councillor Amina Lone taking this seat for Labour.

Her strength is in the town of Morecambe and Heysham with its nuclear power station and busy port.

A major road improvement is under way to link Heysham to the M6 and the more Tory voting areas around Carnforth.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

A FRENZY OF PROMISES

THE IMF’S VERDICT ON RETAIL POLITICS.

 

The more the opinion polls stay stuck, the greater the frenzy of politicians to try and get them moving in their favour by a series of uncosted promises.

All parties are guilty of it to some extent but the Conservatives are particularly guilty. This was encapsulated by the here today and hopefully gone tomorrow Communities Secretary Eric Pickles. He announced the other day that workers would be given three paid days off to do community work. When he was asked how organisations like the NHS were going to pay the huge cost of employing people to cover for absent colleagues, he had no answer. He was reduced to saying “they’ll find a way.” When pressed by the exasperated interviewer, Pickles tried humour saying his answers were getting in the way of the BBC’s questions. Very droll Eric but not good enough.

The questions about where the cuts are going to be made will continue to be asked but the truth is no politician is going to risk pinpointing the specific groups who are going to face cuts until after the election. You can see why but it all adds to the rampant distrust that voters have for those standing for election.

Thank heavens for Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. As the promises flow from the manifestos, he points out how many are uncosted. He also bemoans the short sightedness of this frenzy of retail politics. For instance in the housing field what we need are comprehensive plans to build more homes not the gimmick of selling off housing association properties.

Thank heavens also for the International Monetary Fund which has forecast that at the end of the next parliament, far from having a £7bn surplus, we are likely still to have a deficit. With all these spending promises and the likelihood of a Tory minority government being unable to force through big cuts, the IMF forecast has the ring of truth.

BE FAIR TO LEEDS!

There will be little reporting by the media of the manifesto promises on devolution for the north.

The Conservatives confirm their support for the Northern Powerhouse, HS2 and 3, and science research. The Liberal Democrats would pass a Devolution Enabling Act to allow for the possibility of a Yorkshire Assembly.

Unlike the Tories, Labour are not demanding elected mayors in return for devolution. Hilary Benn, the shadow Communities Secretary says it is unfair for Leeds to have been given less powers than Manchester because it would not bend the knee to the concept of an elected mayor. Labour is also offering devolution to county regions. It is time Lancashire and Yorkshire’s needs were recognised alongside the cities.

CONSTITUENCY FOCUS: HAZEL GROVE.

Can the Liberal Democrats hold on to one of their safer seats in the North when the incumbent MP has retired? Andrew Stunell was the member for nearly twenty years and it could be difficult for Lisa Smart to retain the constituency even though she has been bequeathed a six thousand majority. Ms Smart was chief executive of an international development charity in London. If she does hold on she will help to redress the male domination of the parliamentary Lib Dem party.

Hoping to win the seat for the Tories is teacher and local resident William Wragg. His top issue is reform of the business rate. Hoping not to be squeezed out by the Lib Dem/Tory fight is Labour’s Michael Taylor, a familiar figure to Downtown in Business members, he wants a workforce that can make Britain competitive.

Votes lost by the Conservatives to UKIP could be crucial here. UKIP’s candidate is financial advisor Darren Palmer.