IF THE DEFEAT IS HUGE.
The government is censured. All warehouses in this country for frozen goods are full. Preparations are underway to turn Kent into a lorry park. People are worried they will not be able to gain access to life saving drugs. And for what? A course of action that under ALL circumstances, will leave this country worse off.
Against this background let’s have a look at the myriad of possibilities that will follow next Tuesday’s momentous Brexit vote.
Mrs May might win. If the extreme Brexiteers all take fright following Tory rebel Dominic Greave’s success in getting power to propose motions which could stop or soften Brexit, who knows who might join them just to get out of the EU? Her determination is widely admired in the country. Her opponents are deeply split on all the alternatives.
However, it remains likely she will lose. If it was a heavy 100 vote defeat, she might resign. It is highly unlikely a “coronation” would take place and a bitter leadership contest would take place between remainer and leaver candidates.
Mrs May might want to “take her case to the country”, the words of Jim Callaghan when defeated on a vote of confidence in 1979. She might be prevented by Tory MPs terrified by an election where party candidates would be split between Remain and Leave and where it might be difficult to keep the election on one issue. Labour would certainly want it to be about austerity. Meanwhile what would Labour’s stance be, still respecting the 2016 vote but riddled with vagueness on what else to do about Brexit?
If she loses, a vote of confidence can be expected on Wednesday which she would likely win. If she lost, she would have to resign as Conservative leader and a Tory election would take place as discussed above but the government would stay in place. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has floated the idea that Labour could be sent for to form a minority administration at this point.
A SMALLER DEFEAT
If the defeat is less severe, say around 40/50, Mrs May is likely to go back to the EU to try and get some tweaks to the deal, particularly around the Irish backstop.
If she fails, or is defeated again, then a group of Tory ‘suits’ like Damien Green, Oliver Letwin, Michael Fallon and Dominic Greave, backed by Labour’s Hilary Benn, could put down motions to suggest several options, all of which have problems. They would also only be motions. Only the government can stop us leaving the EU on March 29th by changing the law.
They may suggest postponing the March 29th withdrawal for further talks. The problem is the European Parliamentary elections are coming up in the summer. If we are still in the EU do we elect MEPs? A new EU Commission has to be chosen. In other words, there will be a long delay.
NORWAY AND CANADA.
The Norway option seems to be attracting support, but it allows free movement, the very thing Leavers were most exercised about. Added to which the Norwegians may not want us in the European Free Trade Association vetoing EU rules that they are quite happy with.
Canada, with or without pluses, would not solve the Irish border issue.
NO DEAL AND ANOTHER REFERENDUM.
There is No Deal peddled by idiots like Boris Johnson or its ugly sister “managed No Deal” which might reduce the lorry queues a bit.
Finally, there is the People’s Vote. One can argue that people are much better informed, and the lies of the Leavers have been exposed. But it would be a very bitter campaign and what’s the question, Deal or No Deal or Deal, No Deal and Remain?
Suppose you got Remain 35%, Deal 34%, No Deal 31%? Is that a mandate to remain in the EU?
By the way, UKIP, which was the cause of all this, is now a neo fascist party with Nigel Farage out and Tommy Robinson in.
Follow me @JimHancockUK