Category: American election

A DREADFUL WEEK IN BRITISH POLITICS

 

CABINET SPLITS ON EU.

What an appalling start to the New Year it has been for British politics.

David Cameron’s decision to allow Cabinet members to split on the E.U Referendum is a flat contradiction of what he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr a year ago. The Prime Minister is a brazen pragmatist. What he said yesterday does not matter. He can busk it with his effortless Etonian charm. Now we must wait and see how many Cabinet Ministers take the opportunity to rubbish the deal Cameron gets from his negotiations. If Home Secretary Theresa May, and careerist Boris Johnson join the perennial anti EU Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling then the Prime Minister has a serious problem and so do those of us who want to stay in. Cameron will deserve it if the campaign becomes acrimonious and the Tory Party is split for a generation.

LABOUR BETRAYAL.

That is what happened to Labour soon after Harold Wilson allowed his Cabinet to split on the 1975 referendum. Within six years Cabinet members who had campaigned to stay in formed the Social Democrat Party whilst the Labour Party descended into faction fighting. It vowed never to return to those days when it won power sixteen long years later but this week we have seen in the longest reshuffle in history that Labour is going to be unfit for office until 2025 or 2030. What a betrayal of working class people! From the Blair-Brown feud to the current shambles, both left and right in the party have let ordinary people down big time.

THE YEAR AHEAD.

Apart from the EU Referendum which is likely in June, what else have we to look forward to this year?

THE AMERICAN DYNASTIES TO CONTINUE.

Kennedy, Bush, Clinton; it is amazing that in a country of 320 million people that it is quite possible that between 1989 and 2024 either a Clinton or a Bush will have been President of the United States apart from Barack Obama.

It looks almost certain that Hilary Clinton will win in November because the Republicans have narrowed their support base at a time when America is becoming more multicultural. It is possible the Republicans will choose Donald Trump but even if it is Florida senator Marco Rubio, they are still likely to be handicapped by their reluctance to accept the USA as it is.

CARRY ON CORBYN.

Labour are likely to be heavily beaten in the Scottish government elections but if they can win the London Mayor race and hold their very strong position in local government in the North, there will be no immediate pressure on Jeremy Corbyn.

Locally interest will focus on Liverpool where Joe Anderson is due to stand again for mayor of the city. As he has recently taken over as chair of the Liverpool City Region which is due to elect a mayor for the wider area next year, he may stand down. It is difficult to see how elected mayors in Liverpool and Salford will sit happily under mayors for the larger combined authorities.

Meanwhile Leeds, Lancashire, Cheshire and Cumbria will be looking to conclude devolution deals.

 

AFTER SANDY,WHO NEEDS ROMNEY?

 

This blog is about the American election, but before I get started here’s a reflection on the media coverage of Frankenstorm Sandy.

Somehow I must have missed the wall to wall coverage as the storm hit Haiti before moving north to the USA. I don’t remember the TV correspondent’s previews of the disaster about to hit this desperately poor country days in advance. I don’t remember the sight of reporters clinging on to trees as they reported from Port-au-Prince and I don’t remember interviews with Haitians in the aftermath of the storm.

I appreciate millions more people were affected as the storm raked America’s East Coast but does coverage of these disasters have to be so brazenly dictated by the abundance of news crews in New York and their sparcity in Port-au-Prince?

One blessing of Storm Sandy was a temporary lull in the campaign for the US Presidency. It is now back in full swing ahead of Tuesday’s poll as President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney spend the last of the 2bn dollars that they’ve raised for their campaigns.

Does it all matter for business in the North West of little ol’ England? The answer has to be yes because of the huge American economy. Whoever is pulling the economic strings in Washington will have some effect on our efforts to pull out of recession. America’s domination of the world is diminishing in the face of China, India and Brazil but it is still the daddy.

It also matters because American foreign policy decisions could have a profound effect on all our futures. I only need to refer to a possible clash between Iran and Israel to make that point.

The economy is crucial and that should worry Obama in these closing days of the campaign. Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush Snr in 1992 became one term presidents during periods of economic stress. According to recent research 28% of American workers are worried they might lose their job. 48% of homeowners believe their home is worth less than the mortgage.

So has all the hope and zeal that surrounded the election of America’s first black President four years ago vanished? Will Obama suffer the fate of other western leaders who have lost office since the recession began like Berlusconi in Italy and Sarkozy in France?

Possibly not because Mitt Romney has not sealed the deal with many floating voters. His Mormon faith, his opposition to the bail out of the US car industry and the fact that many Republicans are dissatisfied with him as their candidate all mean that victory may elude him.

The main question is what is the right direction for America? President Obama has staked all on his massive reform of America’s health care system and a $768bn package of tax cuts and investment in the economy. Romney would scrap “Obamacare” as he scathingly refers to it and reduce Federal spending.

Romney faces an uphill task because even if more people vote for him in total across America, you have to win 270 votes in the Electoral College to win. Al Gore got most votes in 2000 but George Bush won in the College. The College is made up of state representatives who formally cast their votes in December reflecting the way people voted in their state. California has 33 votes, sparsely populated Montana just 3.

So although the national polls are showing Obama and Romney dead level, the election will be won and lost in a few key states.

Without a further big push by Romney it looks as if the President will get to 271 votes from 21 states, crucially including Ohio. Romney would win 206 votes from 23 states if he takes the key state of North Carolina. To win Romney would have to take three or four of the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia. It’s a big ask.
It’s going to be close. Let’s hope it doesn’t all hang on a chad.