Category: Brexit

GLIMMER OF HOPE? WE’RE STILL LEAVING!

THE EU IS THE ENEMY APPARANTLY NOT RUSSIA.

It is a commentary on the mindset we have been driven to that people are rejoicing that the Prime Minister and Irish Taioseach may have found a way to an EU deal. Let’s see, but if it happens, it means we are leaving our European family which 48% of us voted against

I don’t want to bang on about Brexit too much this week as it is so profoundly depressing. However, Dominic Cummings did scrape a new low when he threatened defence cooperation with EU countries that obstructed us leaving with no deal.

We have 800 troops in Estonia. That country might take the quite reasonable view that a no deal Brexit harmed it and us. If it does, we are going to ditch security cooperation. Where will that leave our troops defending us against a threat from Russia? Clearly Cummings sees the EU 27 as more of a threat than Putin.

It is reported that Johnson will get around the Benn Act by sending two letters. One will ask for an extension, the other will say the real government view is we don’t want one. The courts must strike that down, ruling it frustrates the purpose of the law and confirm the official position is to ask for more time.

If we get an extension what on earth is Labour’s position? Corbyn says next will be a General Election whilst one of his shadow treasury ministers claims it’s a people’s vote first.

KURDS BETRAYED AGAIN.

In the post Brexit world Johnson is putting heavy reliance on the United States. Is that the country that’s refusing to send back a diplomat’s wife to face potential charges of causing death by dangerous driving?

Is that the country whose President has just destabilised Syria again and betrayed the Kurds who fought so gallantly on behalf of us all to defeat Daiesh. It’s nothing new for the Kurds. 100 years ago, they were promised a state by Britain and we let them down.

SPEAK UP FOR LINDSAY!

The Chorley MP Sir Lindsay Hoyle should be the next Speaker. He has been a dutiful deputy to the flamboyant John Bercow and now deserves the top job.

He is easy to get on with, an essential quality for a Speaker.

The biggest question MPs will be asking about Hoyle is whether he will be strong enough to stand up to the government. Bercow has many failings, but he has been courageous in defending the rights of MPs, summoning ministers on a daily basis to answer urgent matters.

I think Hoyle is capable of this, but he has big shoes to step into.

Bercow’s Speakership has been one of the most remarkable in its long history. Against his championing of the backbencher has to be put his bombastic personality and lack of impartiality over Brexit.

REST IN PEACE, TONY MULHEARN.

Tony Mulhearn was President of the Liverpool District Labour Party during the tumultuous years of Militant in the city.

Although his politics were wrong headed, I always had a respect for him. He stood by his principles not only whilst in power but in the years afterwards when he worked for pensioners

 

 

 

 

BORDERS, BORDERS EVERYWHERE.

 

A DEAL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

The publication of Boris Johnson’s proposals for breaking the Brexit deadlock shows the utter absurdity of the whole project.

We must respect the narrow Leave victory three and a half years ago by creating a trade border in the Irish Sea as well as at the divide between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. I’m sure such arrangements will assist greatly in improving the prosperity of the left behind communities that voted Leave.

Nevertheless, there remains a chance that Johnson will get a deal. The EU want a deal and are fed up with us. The cross-party MPs For A Deal group is growing. Tensions are increasing among the opposition parties who can’t agree when to bring down the PM. The SNP and Liberal Democrats want an election now because of their favourable poll ratings. Labour say they want one but with Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling approval ratings must give them pause for thought.

The other thing that has changed is the calculation about how damaged Johnson would be by being forced to miss his Oct 31st deadline. He is likely to challenge the Act requiring him to ask for more time in the courts. But even if Spiderwoman (Lady Hale) strikes him down, would it mean electoral disaster? Could Nigel Farage really say he was just like Theresa May in failing to meet another deadline. Johnson can demonstrate that it is parliament and the courts that have stopped him achieving his oft repeated exit promise.

MY WET WEEK AMONGST THE BONE-DRY TORIES.

I suspect Margaret Thatcher regarded Alistair Burt as a “wet” when he was elected MP for Bury North in 1983. Be that as it may he has been a fine representative of that one nation pro Europe tradition that was in little evidence as I dodged the rain on the conference fringe in Manchester.

I found Alistair in a fringe meeting along with German Conservatives. Alistair was trying to persuade the audience that a deal was the only answer to end the nation’s pain. He was subject to aggressive questioning from activists for whom only the purest form of Brexit is sufficient with no respect paid to the 48% of us who voted to remain.

My suspicion is that the Tory Party has been very lax in letting in UKIP and Brexit members. The result is that Alistair Burt is expelled from the parliamentary party. Let’s see if it happens to members of the European Reform Group.

THE BERRY ON THE CAKE.

Boris Johnson’s keynote speech included a pledge to tap into the talent of the North in the left behind communities. The minister in charge of delivering it is Northern Powerhouse Minister Jake Berry. I bumped into the Rossendale MP at a series of fringe meetings on devolution.

He has been doing the job for two and a half years, which helps the government’s claim that it is taking devolution seriously. The departure of Berry’s predecessor after just a year had damaged the cause.

LOST CAUSE.

One fringe meeting I couldn’t get to was aiming to get Tories back onto Manchester City Council after decades without. At the moment it seems the only Conservatives that will be in the city will be at conference time.

 

 

JUDGES TO STOP NO DEAL?

SUPREME COURT COULD BE BACK

Could Lady Hale, spider broach and all, be called into action again? The government persist in the contradictory mantra that they will obey the act preventing no deal yet leave on October 31.

Have they been given legal advice that there is a loophole in the legislation that would force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension to our EU membership if a deal was not agreed by October 19th ? It had better be sounder legal advice than they received before they faced the Supreme Court in the illegal prorogation case. Otherwise Lady Hale and her fellow judges (Champions of the People, by the way) could well be called in to nominate someone other than the PM to ask the EU for more time.

Johnson’s boorish, brazen behaviour on Wednesday has some MPs considering what else they need to do to prevent no deal on October 31st. There is talk of strengthening the law because who knows what PM advisor Dominic Cummings is contemplating? The aide should be out of Downing Street following the failure of his strategy to shut down parliament failed so spectacularly.

The other consequence of Johnson’s confrontational approach is to make it very difficult for Leave Labour MPs to vote for any deal that the PM might negotiate before Oct 19th. While I was in Brighton for the Labour conference I spoke to Lisa Nandy. The Wigan MP has been keen to join over 30 Labour MPs in supporting a soft Brexit deal. Even on Monday she expressed to me pessimism that Johnson was negotiating seriously. Now Nandy must contemplate whether she could support a potential Prime Minister’s deal after Johnson accused one of her female colleagues of “humbug” when she expressed despair at the level of abuse MPs are getting.

It looks as if Johnson has decided on a People v Parliament and the courts strategy. It depends for its success on appealing to people who want to leave the EU at any cost to national unity, standards of behaviour, economic welfare, peace in Ireland and the Union.

JOHNSON’S BRIEF VISIT TO MANCHESTER.

The Prime Minister has been rightly punished for his unrepentant behaviour by MPs denying him a recess for the party conference in Manchester. In truth most MPs don’t attend their autumn gatherings. Too much contact with fanatical party members is to be avoided. So, talk of the Manchester economy taking a hit is far-fetched. Most of the junketing and lobbying will go on as usual. Johnson will be the one most inconvenienced having to move his keynote speech which now clashes with Prime Minister’s Questions.

He will still have time to point out that this is his third visit to the North since he became Prime Minister. He will big up the Northern Powerhouse as part of his strategy to win Leave seats up here.

LABOUR’S SOCIALIST OFFER.

On my visit to Brighton, I was surrounded by socialist zeal. Labour’s programme for the election is very radical and one can make comparisons with the 1983 manifesto dubbed the longest suicide note in history. The £90bn price tag, 4-day week and ultra-liberal immigration policy are huge gambles. But whilst we were in Brighton Thomas Cook was collapsing as its executives walked away to count their bonuses and airlines jacked up their prices for people whose holidays were ruined. Labour hopes to get support from those who think capitalism has many unacceptable faces.

Remainers were stitched up by Unite, as I forecast last week, and Labour’s complex position will probably lose out in the battle between Tory No Deal and Lib Dem Revoke. However, Corbyn staying neutral is a lot more honest than Johnson’s confected hostility to our EU membership.

 

 

CAN UNITE UNION SEE OFF REMAINERS ?

YOU CAN’T GET ME………

One of Jeremy Corbyn’s main beefs with Tony Blair’s New Labour project was that it rode roughshod over the wishes of party members.

So, I am looking forward to going to Brighton this weekend to see how one of the most dramatic Labour conferences in years plays out. Most Labour members, including Momentum, want to stay in the EU. But before anyone has got to the South Coast, Corbyn has attempted to pre-empt the debate by declaring his position. It is that a Labour government would negotiate a new departure deal and put that to the country alongside the option to remain. Corbyn refuses to say which side he would campaign on, but the speculation is that he would remain neutral allowing Cabinet members freedom to support whichever side they wished.

The last part of that is in the finest tradition of the Labour Party. Harold Wilson did exactly the same in the 1975 Referendum. But Corbyn announcing his position ahead of the conference suggests that Unite are trying to fix the conference. Len McCluskey, the Unite leader, has always been keen to respect the people’s vote in 2016. He probably shares Corbyn’s view that the EU is a capitalist club.

So, we could see a clash between union power and the grass roots. That will be in the old Labour tradition as well when the unions have defeated the rank and file. Its just that we didn’t expect it under Corbyn who is in danger of losing all credibility. His opinion ratings with the general public are awful, and he now risks losing his claim to represent his members.

It is unlikely that Corbyn will ever be in a position to negotiate a new deal because I still think it is possible that the Prime Minister is going to be able to get something done on the backstop, warn off the spartans on his own backbenches and gain the support of the new MPs For A Deal. This group includes Tories, and Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb. He’s not the only Liberal Democrat rebelling over Jo Swinson’s Revoke stance even though the new Lib Dem leader has a case that a General Election which put in power a Lib Dem government with that manifesto pledge would surely overtake the 2016 referendum.

Lib Dem or Labour majority governments however remain highly improbable with a last-minute deal possible.

MEDIA MATTERS.

I had the pleasure of interviewing the BBC’s North America editor Jon Sopel this week. He was well informed, humorous and self-deprecating. The latter quality is not present in some of his colleagues which brings me to John Humphrys. I found his big send off on Thursday faintly embarrassing. I find media luvvies praising each other on air pretty uncomfortable. Save that for the farewell party. Humphrys has been a great journalist but the picture painted in the Radio Times by his fawning acolyte Justin Webb, paints a picture of a man who couldn’t come to terms with the modern world. Humphrys started each day by bawling out the producers who had worked hard on the morning’s programme. Webb doesn’t mind that macho male behaviour because when he was a young reporter Humphrys spoke to him. Webb then launches a vicious attack on the late Brian Redhead who, he says, never spoke to him. Well he spoke to me Mr Webb. Brian Redhead was one of the greatest journalists the North ever produced and championed Northern devolution. When Humphrys came up here a few years ago to host the Northern Convention he was unprepared and treated the whole thing as a joke.

Time to move on Today.