CAN MAY POSSIBLY GET HER DEAL THROUGH?

 

PLEA TO EU ON BACKSTOP?

I still expect The Prime Minister to eventually find a majority for her vision of Brexit in the next two months. But having been right on the 2016 Referendum, I am probably heading for an “egg on my face moment”.

After all the government have been defeated twice this week and are dealing with a Speaker who is bending the rules against them.

Next week the government are likely to accept an amendment that would give MPs the right to limit the infamous backstop to 12 months. This violates the Withdrawal Agreement. But if it gets her deal through, she could go back to Brussels and say that is the only thing that stands in the way of an agreement that they want.

Democratic Unionist support for this move is vital, because if the DUP can be brought on board, Tory opposition may largely collapse.

 

Mrs May’s deal already has more support than any of the other options. She is currently well short of the 320 she needs. However, her opponents are not close to agreeing an alternative whether that be, delaying our departure, a hard Brexit, hard Brexit with side deals, second referendum, Labour or a national government renegotiating the terms, Norway or Canada options.

The only other thing, apart from Mrs May’s deal commanding strong support is opposition to a hard Brexit. However that can only be stopped by changing the law, and laws can only be changed by a government not the House of Commons.

 

A recent survey suggested the Prime Minister could rely on 150 MPs in the Brexit Delivery Group. It also identified 65 waverers who will probably support the government as the crunch approaches. Then there was a 20 strong group described as nervous Tory Remainers. If the DUP are on board, how many of them will actually vote against their government?

It is to Labour that we must now turn.Given that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and the Green’s Caroline Lucas are going to vote against May’s deal, the largest bloc in her way is the 257 strong Labour Party. Some of them, especially in seats that voted to leave will come under increasing pressure to support the May deal. Some,like John Mann, already seem prepared to offer their support to the Prime Minister on the basis of assurances about workers rights.

Nevertheless, a majority will stay loyal to the Corbyn strategy which is to cynically get us out of the EU whilst having no part in the Brexit deal and thus being able to criticise it from March 30th.

Labour will probably be joined by a group of Tory diehard Brexiteers. 117 Conservative MPs voted against her in last month’s leadership election but that does not mean they will all vote against her EU deal. The argument that their hard line could lead to Brexit not happening will erode their numbers to the point where I think Mrs May will squeak home, but it will be close.

OTHER THINGS WILL HAPPEN!

Let us hope that if we get through the immediate Brexit crisis that other things can be attended to this year like social care, housing and a boost for devolution. The Northern Powerhouse project has taken a credibility blow because of the chaos on road and rail. We need a renewal of the debate around regional government and in the meantime devolution agreements for Yorkshire, Cumbria, Lancashire and Warrington/Cheshire.

We will see what the public have made of our departure from the EU in the local elections in May. A third of the seats are up in our metropolitan and unitary councils with all out polls in the two Cheshire authorities and Blackpool.

We won’t be taking part in the democratic elections to the European Parliament in May because we’ve decided not to have a say anymore in the EU laws that will continue to affect our lives one way or another.

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A NEW YEAR FULL OF UNCERTAINTY

BREXIT.

I still expect The Prime Minister to just find a majority for her vision of Brexit in the next three months. But having been right on the 2016 Referendum, I am probably heading for an “egg on my face moment”.

My prediction is based on the parliamentary arithmetic which suggests that Mrs May’s deal has more support than any of the other options. She is currently well short of the 320 she needs. However, her opponents are not close to agreeing an alternative whether that be, delaying our departure, a hard Brexit, hard Brexit with side deals, second referendum, Labour or a national government renegotiating the terms, Norway or Canada options. Before Christmas there seemed to be a majority to stop a hard Brexit if Mrs May’s deal was voted down. That can only be done by changing the law and laws can only be changed by a government not the House of Commons.

A recent survey suggested the Prime Minister could rely on 150 MPs in the Brexit Delivery Group. It also identified 65 waverers. I think the eerie calm that descended on the Brexit debate over Christmas may have led many of those into the May camp. Then there was a 20 strong group described as nervous Tory Remainers. As the clock ticks down, they may well head into the government’s camp.

Then we come to the Democratic Unionists, only ten of them but much more influential. If they can get the sort of annex of assurance over the backstop that the European Commission has a track record for producing, they could be brought on side. If this were to happen it would be hugely influential on Tory waverers and some Labour MPs. It is to Labour that we must now turn.

Given that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and the Green’s Caroline Lucas are going to vote against May’s deal, the largest bloc in her way is the 257 strong Labour Party. Some of them, especially in seats that voted to leave will come under increasing pressure to support the May deal as the government plays for time.

Nevertheless, a majority will stay loyal to the Corbyn strategy which is to cynically get us out of the EU whilst having no part in the Brexit deal and thus being able to criticise it from March 30th.

Labour will probably be joined by a group of Tory diehard Brexiteers. 117 Conservative MPs voted against her in last month’s leadership election but that does not mean they will all vote against her EU deal. The argument that their hard line could lead to Brexit not happening will erode their numbers to the point where I think Mrs May will squeak home, but it will be close.

OTHER THINGS WILL HAPPEN!

Let us hope that if we get through the immediate Brexit crisis that other things can be attended to like social care, housing and a boost for devolution. The Northern Powerhouse project has taken a credibility blow because of the chaos on road and rail. We need a renewal of the debate around regional government and in the meantime devolution agreements for Yorkshire, Cumbria, Lancashire and Warrington/Cheshire.

We will see what the public have made of our departure from the EU in the local elections in May. A third of the seats are up in our metropolitan and unitary councils with all out polls in the two Cheshire authorities and Blackpool.

We won’t be taking part in the democratic elections to the European Parliament in May because we’ve decided not to shape anymore the EU laws that will continue to affect our lives one way or another.

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“LETTER OF COMFORT” TO SAVE MAY DEAL?

MORE U TURNS FROM MRS MAY?

So, Mr Rees Mogg is it OK to try to overturn the 2016 decision? No not the EU Referendum, the decision to make Theresa May leader of the Conservative Party. Then when she defeats the Brexiteers mistimed coup, it is OK, Mr Rees Mogg, to ignore the 83 Tory MP majority and tell her to go to the Queen and resign. The reeking hypocrisy of the “extremists” as the Chancellor so rightly calls them in opposing a People’s Vote is laid bare.

So, where are we? Mrs May’s 200-117 victory wasn’t great, but she carries on. There are signs that a “letter of comfort”, a clarification, an assurance over the temporary nature of the Backstop will be forthcoming from our exasperated European colleagues.

The question then is will it be enough for the DUP to fall in line? Possibly. If not, we will have to see how successful Mrs May will be in her belated attempt to get some Labour MPs to support her. This strategy should have been employed a long time ago. I think the Prime Minister has done reasonably well in very difficult circumstances. Her main failing has been her failure to build a broad coalition in her own party leave alone Labour or the SNP.

So when, at the last minute, she now seeks Labour votes it is going to be much more difficult for the likes of Wigan’s Lisa Nandy and Doncaster’s Caroline Flint. Mrs May is tarnished goods. She has a track record for saying one thing and doing another. Remember, “There will be no General Election in 2017”. “The vote on the Brexit Deal will not be pulled”. One day soon she is quite capable of saying the following. “Parliament has refused to live up to its responsibilities in a way that I could never foresee, therefore it is my duty to call a General Election or a People’s Vote.”

Her other alternative is to allow the clock to go on ticking towards March 29th, hoping to force MPs to back her deal rather than face No Deal chaos. Hillary Benn and Dominic Greave can get the Commons to vote for anything they like, the law is that we leave on March 29th. Only governments can initiate changes in the law.

The Labour leadership have refused the no confidence approach but won’t say why. I’ll tell you why. They would lose. Every Tory MP and the DUP would back the government whose morale would be raised by defeating Labour. Anyway, Brexiteer Corbyn wants us out of the EU and then he wants to be able to blame everything on the way the Tories messed up Brexit.

Finally, we come to Mrs May saying she will not contest the 2022 election. Quite rightly her statement is not fully believed, given her track record. But if we take it at face value, it was very foolish. It must have been done in a desperate pitch for votes because it now makes her a lame duck. She will probably have to go soon after March 29th as we can’t have her in charge of the protracted talks over our future relationship when the EU will be wondering who they will be negotiating with before the final deal is concluded. It also means that the depressing jockeying for the position of Conservative leader that has been going on while the nation begs for leadership, will intensify.

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BUSINESS PRESSURE ON MPs TO DO DEAL

 

MAY GAINS GROUND

The pressure on MPs to stop the Westminster pantomime and act responsibly will grow and grow as the vote on the Brexit deal comes closer. It will come from business which is fed up with the uncertainty. It will also come from large sections of the public who just want to get on with it now that we have more detail on the future relationship framework after Brexit Day.

The Prime Minister has seen off the empty threats of the European Reform Group of MPs. She is also gaining admiration for her resilience while surrounded by squabbling men.

I haven’t resiled from my firm belief that the whole thing is madness and we should stay in the EU. The problem for us Remainers is that we need a Commons majority to change the law on exiting on March 29th and I can’t see how that can be done.

The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, is calling for Mrs May to step aside and allow Labour to form a minority government. But they have no appetite to stop Brexit.

A General Election is almost impossible to achieve under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, (although I discuss one possibility below) Anyway it is very unlikely Labour would campaign on staying in the EU. As last year, the two main parties would likely be in lockstep on respecting the Referendum result. There is a vanishingly small chance of the Lib Dems, who would stop Brexit, coming from single digit opinion poll obscurity, to form a majority government.

I have already given way to the threat of civil unrest if there was a second referendum which I think would be close again and settle nothing.

So, we come to the intense pressure that is going to be applied to MPs to accept Mrs May’s deal. The government may come back again and again to parliament. One defeat will not mean it can’t be put to the vote again. Meanwhile the pound will collapse in value and Mrs May could seek a General Election herself, hoping to rally a nation facing the cliff edge.

Doing the parliamentary maths, I can just see the tiniest majority for the deal. It rests on two groups of MPs. Wavering Brexiteer Tories who number around 65 and a similar number of Labour MPs who currently favour a People’s Vote. People like Stephen Kinnock and Chuka Umunna.

The process of getting the deal across the line would be assisted by it being a free vote for all MPs. That’s what happened when the Commons voted on joining the Common Market in 1971.

McVEY’s FUTURE.

Esther McVey left the Cabinet in spectacular style last week. She is reported to have had a shouting match with the Prime Minister as she demanded a formal Cabinet vote on the deal.

Briefings against her soon got underway, largely centred around her row with the Chancellor over money for Universal Benefit and her misleading parliament over the National Audit Office’s view on its rollout.

McVey was a huge asset to the Tories. A scouser from a working-class background, the former TV presenter brought a bit of glamour to a party dominated by “suits”.

She lost her seat in Wirral West in 2015 after a bitter campaign and now faces the prospect of her current constituency, Tatton, being broken up. She may face a contest with for the new seat of Altrincham and Knutsford with Graham Brady.

Yes, that Graham Brady, the chair of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee who didn’t get 48 letters of no confidence from the Dad’s Army of extreme Brexiteers, but I wonder if Esther has popped one in?

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