ALL PARTY LEADERS UNEASY WITH ACTIVISTS

David Cameron has sought to reassure his party workers that he loves them really. We shall see if he has put Loongate to bed when they meet him at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester this autumn.

 

There is nothing new in this story of tension between the Conservative leadership and the poor bloody infantry who get them elected. A former Tory leader, Arthur Balfour, remarked a hundred years ago that he would rather take advice from his valet than the Conservative Party conference.

 

But this tension between party leaderships and grass root activists is not confined to the Tories.

 

Before Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson spoilt it all, the Labour Party conference used to be the occasion for a really interesting debate between pragmatic leaders who had one eye on the voters, and left wing activists who wanted the revolution tomorrow. That tension is still there but it is masked by party managers who want Labour to fight from the centre ground.

 

The result is that the Labour Party conference has become schizophrenic. On the debating floor, a series of anodyne debates are staged whilst on the fringes a really dynamic conversation is taking place. The public aren’t fooled and many party members leave mainstream politics in despair.

 

It is also true of the Liberal Democrats, and their predecessor party the Liberals. In the sixties and seventies there was tremendous tension between the then leader Jeremy Thorpe and the Young Liberals led by Peter Hain (now an ex Labour Minister). That tension resurfaced when the Lib Dems and the Social Democrats merged, bringing into the Alliance people like David Owen who believed in Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

 

An old friend of mine, Viv Bingham, who sadly died last year, lead a strong campaign for unilateralism.

He was at one time President of the Party, but always had an uneasy relationship with leaders like David Steel. Viv represented a distinctive trend of northern Liberalism committed to the cooperative movement, public service and opposition to nuclear weapons. It is interesting that the Southport MP John Pugh is calling this weekend on his party to recognise the different northern priorities as the Lib Dems prepare for the General Election campaign.

 

What Tory activists, left wing Labour supporters and radical Liberal Democrats are all battling against is the mentality of the London elite. Politicians in power get sucked into the world of civil servants who know little of life beyond the M25. Then they are surrounded by special advisers who have little sympathy with the fact that the ministers only got their because of the hard work of activists who believe in distinctive Tory, Socialist or Liberal principals.

 

Of course some of the ideas of grass roots activists are idealistic, too expensive or would turn off the voters. However the disconnect in the three main parties between the leadership and the grass roots, partly explains the rise of UKIP.

 

In my opinion many of them are swivel-eyed loons, but there is no gap between them and their leader Nigel Farage.

PARTY POLITICS, A MINORITY SPORT

MANCHESTER CENTRAL

In 1942 the voters of Poplar South could be forgiven for a lack of interest in a by election. The Nazis were at the gates of Stalingrad and Rommel was threatening to conquer Egypt. 8% turned out.

 

Manchester Central’s voters had no such military distractions last week as they recorded the lowest turnout since those desperate wartime days.

 

The quality of candidates was high. Lucy Powell, Labour’s first woman MP, has already worked in key posts in the Labour Party. Marc Ramsbottom is a serious and able leader of the Lib Dem opposition on Manchester Council. Matthew Sephton deserves a seat with better prospects for the Conservatives.

 

The economy is still flat lining. Many people in Manchester Central are suffering benefit and service cuts and yet they didn’t see the parliamentary game as one they wanted to take part in. It is true that Labour were always going to hold this seat, but the lack of uncertainty about the result cannot be the full explanation for such apathy. People are losing faith that conventional politics can make a difference.

A POLICE COMMISSIONER’S LOT

Low polls were also a feature of the elections for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCC) across the North. From Leeds to Liverpool the turnout averaged around 13%.

 

Mark Burns-Williamson won a run off with an Independent to become the PCC in West Yorkshire. One of his first tasks will be to appoint a new Chief Constable now that Norman Bettison is stepping down following the recent Hillsborough revelations.

 

In the rest of the Downtown patch, our new PCCs face the stark realities of cuts as they set police budgets against a very tough deadline.

 

Both Tony Lloyd (Greater Manchester) and Jane Kennedy (Merseyside) won on the first ballot for Labour. Keep an eye on Kennedy who is set to make some waves as she streamlines the bloated structure of the old police authority.

 

Given their poll ratings, the Conservatives can be reasonably pleased that they won two PCC races in the North West. In Cheshire John Dwyer saw off Labour’s John Stockton in a second round run off. A former Assistant Chief Constable, some are forecasting a difficult relationship with the current Chief Constable David Whatton. Meanwhile In Cumbria magistrate and Tory candidate Richard Rhodes also won a second round ballot run off against Labour candidate Patrick Leonard.

 

But the Conservatives couldn’t repeat their success in Lancashire, soon to be the scene for a hotly contested battle for control of County Hall. Conservative candidate Tim Ashton took Labour’s Clive Grunshaw to a second ballot but was edged out.

 

The Liberal Democrats got no PCC elected in the whole of England and Wales. In the Downtown area they came bottom of the poll in West Yorkshire,Lancashire and Cumbria and next to bottom in Cheshire. On Merseyside Paula Keaveney was five thousand votes behind her ex Lib Dem colleague Kieron Reid standing as an independent. Only in Greater Manchester did former copper Matt Gallagher put up a reasonable showing.

 

I was with two of the North West’s top election experts this week. They both forecast that Nick Clegg would be deposed by Vince Cable before the next election and the Lib Dems would leave the Tories as a minority government for six to twelve months before 2015.

PRESTON PASSION AWARD

The highlight of the North West Royal Television Society Awards for me was when the Best Live Event category was won by the BBC for their coverage of The Preston Passion. It recognised both the commitment of the BBC and the people of Preston for a great effort in poor weather last Easter.

MERSEY POLICE SHAKE UP AND OTHER POLLS

 

 

Next Thursday across the North West you have the chance to brave the dark and the rain to vote for Police and Crime Commissioners(PCC) in the five force areas in the region. These are new posts where power is being given to one individual to hold the police to account on behalf of the public. They will decide how the budget is spent and will develop a plan to tackle crime.

 

Merseyside police could be in for a big shake up if Jane Kennedy becomes PCC there next Friday.

 

The former Labour MP for Wavertree has ministerial police experience in Northern Ireland, so tackling the bloated bureaucracy of the outgoing Merseyside Police Authority should be a breeze. The authority that once chose Norman Bettison as Chief Constable has 29 committees and a posh headquarters in Pall Mall. All that could be set to change if Jane Kennedy wins.

 

If Merseyside voters don’t want the Labour candidate, they have five other options. Paula Keaveney is the former Lib Dem group leader on Liverpool Council but apart from her party’s dire poll ratings she is faced with the challenge of another ex Liverpool Lib Dem councillor Kiron Reid. He explains his defection from the party by stating that PCCs should be independent of party. Liverpool born Geoff Gubb is standing in the Conservative interest, Hilary Jones for UKIP and Paul Rimmer for the English Democrats.

 

In Greater Manchester another ex Labour MP, Tony Lloyd, seems assured of victory. The only question is why the ex Central and Stretford MP would want to give up a safe parliamentary seat and chairmanship of the Parliamentary Labour Party to take on the crime problems of this large urban force area.

 

For the Lib Dems, Matt Gallagher brings 30 years of frontline policing to his candidature. The problem is that his party has been haemorrhaging councillors across Greater Manchester in the last two years. Michael Winstanley represents the Conservatives, Steven Woolfe UKIP and Roy Warren is an independent candidate.

 

The outcome of the elections is less clear in the three remaining police force areas. Labour’s candidate in Lancashire Clive Grunshaw will face a spirited challenge from Tory Lancashire County Councillor Tim Ashton who’s pledging to end what he calls a “softly softly” approach to crime. Afzal Anwar stands for the Lib Dems and Rob Drobney for UKIP..

 

Cheshire may provide the closest contest. A former Assistant Chief Constable for the county,John Dwyer is the Tory candidate. Halton councillor John Stockton opposes him for Labour. Cheshire businesswoman Sarah Flannery is attracting some support for her independent candidature. Ex Macclesfield councillor Ainsley Arnold represents the Lib Dems and Louise Bours UKIP.

 

In Cumbria Patrick Leonard is standing in his first election for Labour. Barrister Pru Jupe represents the Lib Dems, magistrate Richard Rhodes the Conservatives and Mary Robinson is an independent.

 

Crucial to the success of these new Commissioners will be their relationship with their Chief Constables. Under the old police authorities there were major battles between the senior police officers and the authority chairs. Remember Margaret Simey and Ken Oxford on Merseyside and Gay Cox and Jim Anderton in Greater Manchester.

 

Operational matters are to remain with the Chief Constables under the new arrangements, but what is operational and what is a pet project of a newly mandated Police and Crime Commissioner. The potential for conflict is there.

 

 

MANCHESTER CENTRAL BY ELECTION.

 

I had the pleasure of hosting a hustings meeting for the parliamentary by election caused by Tony Lloyd’s decision to contest the post of PCC for Greater Manchester.

 

The Friends Meeting House was full to hear from ten of the eleven candidates standing. Labour’s Lucy Powell is certain to win but most of the candidates put up a good show. I was particularly impressed with the fresh approach to politics of Loz Kaye of the Pirate Party and Catherine Higgins of Respect. While her party leader George Galloway is all about himself, Catherine was all about the people of Hulme and Moss side where she lives.

 

I did get a bit exasperated with Peter Clifford of the Communist League who gave the same answer about the crisis in capitalism to all questions including one on fluoridation!

 

The by election is also on Thursday along with the PCC elections.

BAE MERGER DEAD… INFRASTRUCTURE LIVES!

The Tory conference hall in Birmingham was a place to go for a snooze (except when The Blonde Mop was speaking). But on the fringe there was plenty going on affecting every business in the North West.

 

Despite the BAE/EADS merger collapsing and the West Coast rail franchise descending into back biting and law suits, there was still a determination for the region to defy the recession with infrastructure projects.

 

There were lively fringe meetings put on by Atlantic Gateway, United Utilities and BAE, all stressing that they wanted to help the government grow its way out of the recession. Liverpool 2 Port Terminal had a prime location for its stand and there was news that HS2 is to be speeded up with plans for its route into the North West being published in the next few months.

 

WHAT NOW FOR BAE?

 

The BAE/EADS merger drama was unfolding as the Tory conference was getting under way. The Prime Minister and the Defence Secretary Philip Hammond were in Birmingham rather than in their normal power centres in Whitehall. On Monday night BAE hosted a long arranged fringe meeting and had to listen to Tory MPs and MEPs claiming BAE were about to be crushed between French and German interests if the merger went ahead. The BAE representative told us the proposed merger was “an opportunity not a necessity”.

 

By Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s representative had called David Cameron in his hotel suite in Birmingham to indicate her wholesale objection to the deal.

 

This left North West Tories from Lancashire and Cumbria at the conference worried about the future of BAE. There was widespread criticism of the company’s senior managers who had been on the back foot since a leak had forced them to reveal a half-cooked agreement. Once the plans had been revealed BAE should have gone on the offensive selling the merits of a defence-civilian plane business link up. Instead they spent weeks on the defensive as criticism of the merger mounted.

 

Now the workforce at Warton,Salmesbury and Barrow are worried about the future for BAE in a world where defence orders are shrinking. Unions have attacked what they claim is a lack of a defence strategy by the British government.

 

ATLANTIC GATEWAY

 

If defence jobs are under threat in the northern part of our region, perhaps we need to look south to the arc of development potential stretching from Manchester Airport along the banks of the Mersey to Liverpool.

 

Atlantic Gateway held a fringe meeting in Birmingham to get over the message that 250,000 new jobs could be created from £14 bn of investment in everything from the Northern rail hub, Daresbury Science Park, the new Mersey bridge and the Liverpool/Wirral Waters project. Added to this the area has three enterprise zones and the Liverpool 2 Port Terminal which aims to attract freight that currently comes through Southampton and Felixstowe with ultimate destinations in the North.

 

Dennis Bate of Bovis LendLease said the Atlantic Gateway was just the sort of big scale project that wealth funds were looking to invest in. He told representatives that the era of looking to government for big money was over.

 

The meeting was going well until the new leader of Cheshire East Council Michael Jones cast doubt on Manchester and Liverpool’s commitment to Atlantic Gateway. It is true that in the past Manchester Council’s Chief Executive Sir Howard Bernstein has been less than enthusiastic about the concept but everyone agreed that unity was essential in backing big scale investment to counter the over heated London economy. How else can we compete with the capital which has at its head a man who dominated the conference?

 

THE BLONDE MOP

 

That is apparently what David Cameron called Boris Johnson just before the latter he descended like a whirlwind on the conference.

 

Just as I wasn’t carried away by the media euphoria that surrounded Ed Miliband last week, nor was I impressed with the Prime Ministerial credentials of Boris. I rarely queue to get into meetings these days, but I did for Boris because he is interesting and entertaining. But is he really equipped for the hard grind of decision making that the office of Prime Minister requires? David Cameron’s speech had few jokes but he’s taking the tough decisions.

 

The truth is Boris beat a tired Ken Livingstone in the Mayoral election. He was a great cheerleader for the Olympics but, as he himself acknowledged, the success was down to excellent teams in the Olympic organising bodies.

A BBC poll of conference delegates yielded quite a close result when they were asked who their next leader should be. 60% said Boris 40% backed anyone else. The latter is quite a high figure and suggests that the Conservative Party is not wholly caught up in the Boris mania.