NO DEAL, A REAL POSSIBILITY.

 

DOG’S BREXITFAST.

The White Paper and the Chequers Deal are a dog’s breakfast not a basis for Brexit. It is highly unlikely the EU is going to accept its “cake and eat it” approach. They may be bribed by losing the £39 divorce bill but will probably conclude that the fearsome complexity of it all and the breaches it would make with regard to customs and freedom of movement, make it impossible to do a deal.

We are stepping up “No Deal” preparations. A minister admitted this week they included massive new lorry parks at Dover. So, we can now see in plain sight the reckless stupidity of it all, but that is the way we are heading. This is how a No Deal Brexit may happen.

The Prime Minister now has a Cabinet signed up to her unworkable compromise. Reined against her are at least 60 Tory MPs in the European Reform Group, large sections of grassroots activists, the opposition parties (Labour MPs have refused to be picked off) and very likely the EU, European Parliament and 27-member states.

The EU, and the German Chancellor in particular, know how difficult it has been for Mrs May to get this far but nevertheless it is almost certain Europe will want further concessions from the UK.

Mrs May will not be able to concede anymore, the Brexiteers have no plan and there is no agreement in parliament for anything else. Thus, we go over the cliff edge on World Trade Organisation terms, the lorries start queueing at Dover and tension starts to rise on the hard Irish border.

There is an answer, to ask the people what they think. People’s experience of the last two years of shambles may have made them wiser. Labour is inching towards this position following Unite’s conversion to the cause. We shall see.

GOOD RIDDANCE JOHNSON.

Lord Carrington died within 24 hours of Boris Johnson quitting as Foreign Secretary. Carrington honourably resigned in 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. He was a decent man who held the office with distinction. Johnson was the polar opposite. His flippant style, lack of attention to detail and blatant disloyalty to the Prime Minister must make him one of the worst holders of this distinguished post. He is also a coward. He got out of the country when the Heathrow vote took place and sheepishly followed David Davis in resigning.

His political stock has been damaged even amongst those that were drawn to his “patriotic” buffoonery”. He will probably try and head up an opposition movement to May but might find her more strong and stable than he imagines.

NEW CABINET.

Jeremy Hunt will restore dignity to the office of Foreign Secretary. It has been good to see someone left to get on with the job for several years. Let’s hope the energetic Matt Hancock now tackles the issue of elderly care with vigour.

Chris Grayling was lucky to stay on as Transport Secretary. He would probably have gone in a more planned Cabinet shakeup.

It’s a good job Tatton’s Esther McVey has managed to survive her problem with the “actualite” over universal benefits, because she is the only full Cabinet Minister with a northern constituency. Eleven represent seats in the South East.

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POLITICAL STALEMATE

 

 

After years of political turbulence, the local election results seem to tell us that deadlock has been reached in the nation’s politics.

The Conservatives are seen as the party of Brexit and are gaining support in Leave areas, particularly in the Midlands. Their Brexit credentials have helped protect them from the normal loss of seats that follows a General Election. They are not particularly popular but seem immune for taking a hammering over austerity, social care and housing.

Labour have been unfairly criticised for not making more progress. The fact is that after eight years in opposition they controlled 70% of the seats in the North West after successive gains over the years. On the other hand, it is true that there is no evidence that the party is on course for a majority government in 2022. There are some indications that Jeremy Corbyn’s metropolitan brand of hard left politics and tortuous opportunism on the Brexit issue is not appealing to voters in towns like Bolton and Wigan.

The bright exception for the party was ending Tory rule in Trafford by gaining four wards, but even here it was the loss of two councillors in Altrincham to the Greens that tipped the balance. I wonder what the private reaction of the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester will be to the result. The outgoing Conservative leader Sean Anstee was a key link to the government in respect of the Northern Powerhouse devolution and elected mayors projects.

 

The Conservatives did not do as badly as they deserved to following an election run up that included a fourth Cabinet resignation and the Windrush scandal. But they must not be complacent because they clearly benefitted from the collapse of UKIP.

The Liberal Democrats have begun a patchy climb back. Retaining South Lakeland was important as were the gains in Liverpool. However just across the border in Sefton the Liberal Democrat decline has been spectacular. From holding the council leadership and the parliamentary constituency of Southport, the party now has no MP in the area and is now down to 12 councillors, the lowest total in over thirty years.

The main focus of attention in Lancashire was the Conservatives capture of Pendle by the reinstatement of a councillor who’d been suspended from the party for sharing a foul racist joke on Facebook. The Tory Party Chairman, Brandon Lewis, said he would “look at it” but the suspension has been served and the prospect of running the council for the first time since 1979 might prove too tempting. Race has tainted the council for a while as the last BNP councillor in the whole country was to be found here.

It is worth reflecting that 15 years ago the BNP were a real threat in local government winning seven seats on Burnley Council and becoming the official opposition.

On a brighter note Blackburn saw the election of Asian women for the first time, let’s hope that trend continues.

What conclusion do we draw from it all for the immediate political future? It looks as if the nation will settle for a Conservative government with a slim or no majority just if Labour remains hard left. The centre alternative is either trapped in the Labour Party, or in the case of the Lib Dems is still too weak to make a real difference.

Follow me @JimHancockUK

 

 

After years of political turbulence, the local election results seem to tell us that deadlock has been reached in the nation’s politics.

The Conservatives are seen as the party of Brexit and are gaining support in Leave areas, particularly in the Midlands. Their Brexit credentials have helped protect them from the normal loss of seats that follows a General Election. They are not particularly popular but seem immune for taking a hammering over austerity, social care and housing.

Labour have been unfairly criticised for not making more progress. The fact is that after eight years in opposition they controlled 70% of the seats in the North West after successive gains over the years. On the other hand, it is true that there is no evidence that the party is on course for a majority government in 2022. There are some indications that Jeremy Corbyn’s metropolitan brand of hard left politics and tortuous opportunism on the Brexit issue is not appealing to voters in towns like Bolton and Wigan.

The bright exception for the party was ending Tory rule in Trafford by gaining four wards, but even here it was the loss of two councillors in Altrincham to the Greens that tipped the balance. I wonder what the private reaction of the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester will be to the result. The outgoing Conservative leader Sean Anstee was a key link to the government in respect of the Northern Powerhouse devolution and elected mayors projects.

 

The Conservatives did not do as badly as they deserved to following an election run up that included a fourth Cabinet resignation and the Windrush scandal. But they must not be complacent because they clearly benefitted from the collapse of UKIP.

The Liberal Democrats have begun a patchy climb back. Retaining South Lakeland was important as were the gains in Liverpool. However just across the border in Sefton the Liberal Democrat decline has been spectacular. From holding the council leadership and the parliamentary constituency of Southport, the party now has no MP in the area and is now down to 12 councillors, the lowest total in over thirty years.

The main focus of attention in Lancashire was the Conservatives capture of Pendle by the reinstatement of a councillor who’d been suspended from the party for sharing a foul racist joke on Facebook. The Tory Party Chairman, Brandon Lewis, said he would “look at it” but the suspension has been served and the prospect of running the council for the first time since 1979 might prove too tempting. Race has tainted the council for a while as the last BNP councillor in the whole country was to be found here.

It is worth reflecting that 15 years ago the BNP were a real threat in local government winning seven seats on Burnley Council and becoming the official opposition.

On a brighter note Blackburn saw the election of Asian women for the first time, let’s hope that trend continues.

What conclusion do we draw from it all for the immediate political future? It looks as if the nation will settle for a Conservative government with a slim or no majority just if Labour remains hard left. The centre alternative is either trapped in the Labour Party, or in the case of the Lib Dems is still too weak to make a real difference.

Follow me @JimHancockUK

IRRITATING AGONISING

 

DANGEROUS DITHERING.

Two areas of current debate are irritating me. One is what to do about Syria, the other what to do about representing the centre ground in British politics.

The issues are totally different, but they have this in common; futile, even dishonest, hand ringing by politicians.

SYRIA: ASSAD WILL WIN.

It gives me no pleasure to write that sub heading. Syria is ill served by the butcher Bashar-al-Assad. He is the main survivor from this century’s turmoil in the Middle East that saw the removal of many of the region’s dictators. In the brutal world of Middle East politics, it was a mistake to depose these dictators who, at least, ensured stability in their countries.

The West was heavily involved in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan in the early years of this century motivated by securing oil supplies, fighting terrorism or introducing western style democracy depending on your point of view. The result was bloody chaos and the rise of the so called Islamic State.

This led to a complete volte face by the West as people in America and Britain understandably questioned why blood and treasure was being wasted on hopeless causes.

When opponents of Assad in Syria rose up and called on the West to help, we did little. As the slaughter became more widespread, President Barack Obama warned Assad not to cross the “red line” by using chemical weapons. They were used, and the USA did nothing. The UK Parliament voted in 2013 against air strikes in Syria.

So, intervention doesn’t work, and the current cautious policy of the West has been an invitation to Russia and Iran to fill the vacuum in Syria.

The sporadic threats and interventions of President Trump are too late, incoherent, will prolong the conflict and could lead to a global confrontation with Russia and Iran. With John Bolton as the new American National Security advisor anything is possible.

Of course, there should be peace talks but, Assad is going to win, so the earlier the violence ends the better. Meanwhile the West needs to decide what its real red lines are in relation to Russia, China and Iran.

And by the way the collapse of the EU, as forecast by an academic this week, would not help with stability.

THE CENTRE PARTY CHIMERA.

Tony Blair is never off the airwaves these days. I find his interviews frustrating. They start with an excellent analysis of the polarised state of British politics with the vast centre ground unrepresented.

Then he is asked to take the logical step of helping to form a new party and he goes all coy concluding that he is staying with Labour.

He is not alone. Many centrist politicians are happy to brief the media about £50m being available for a new party and how important it is that voters have a choice other than Brexit Tory or Statist Corbyn. But you never see names attached to these stories.

So, my message to Tony and his friends is either stop this self-indulgent chatter, get on with forming a new party or work with the Lib Dems with whom you have few real differences.

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IF ONLY…..

 

 

MOVE ON

If only Jeremy Corbyn hadn’t been elected leader of the Labour Party. If only people had voted to remain. If only Donald Trump hadn’t been chosen as President of the United States.

Amid the quite legitimate concerns about Corbyn’s sluggish reaction to anti-Semitism in the party, Cambridge Analytica’s role in the Brexit vote, and constant questions around Trump’s fitness for office; there is an underlying feeling that some are motivated by an inability to accept decisions of the people or party members.

DON’T REFIGHT 2016.

I desperately want to stop Brexit by parliamentary means or by a vote on the final deal. However, I don’t think the cause is helped by trawling through the alleged financial chicanery by Vote Leave. Is there the slightest prospect of the 2016 Referendum being declared void? No, so let’s focus on the major task of changing public opinion.

It is a major task because top pollsters are reporting that a year before we leave, public opinion is where it was in 2016; divided down the middle. Furthermore, pollsters believe that won’t change because people are resistant to arguments that potentially could alter their minds.

When Remain focus groups are presented with expert findings that Britain will be fine in a global market, a substantial majority not only reject the findings but also express distrust of the expert. Experts fare no better when Leave focus groups are faced with gloomy forecasts for post Brexit Britain.

So, there is work to do, but trying to invalidate the 2016 Referendum isn’t a productive course of action.

HILLARY IS HISTORY.

Turning to Trump’s victory, it is deeply disturbing to realise that the huge viral growth of slogans like “crooked Hillary” was orchestrated by Cambridge Analytica. We have had wall to wall coverage of Stormy Daniels allegations of having sex with Trump. There is also the ongoing Mueller investigation into possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign.

None of it matters a damn to Trump supporters who look at the improving economy and give him their approval. Again, Trump opponents should stop trawling the last election, warn people not to be fooled by orchestrated social media next time and present some convincing arguments to vote Democrat this autumn in the midterm elections.

LABOUR IS A SOCIALIST PARTY.

Finally, we come to all the flak that Jeremy Corbyn has been facing over anti-Semitism. The problem here is that Corbyn and those around him feel passionately about Palestine and rightly so. Palestine deserves to be a state and Israel should not be putting settlers into the illegally occupied territories. However, Israel has every right to exist within internationally recognised boundaries, respecting the civil rights of all its citizens.

Criticism of the Israeli government is completely legitimate but when that spills over into anti-Semitism, it is completely wrong. The problem is that some pro-Palestinian organisations that Corbyn, and his top aide Seamus Milne, support have anti Semites on their fringe.

Labour needs to act more quickly to identify and expel those who are anti Semites, campaign for a Palestine state and an Israel that once again has its own strong Labour Party.

Corbyn opponents in the Labour Party need to realise that they are now in a party that,in its internal structures, personnel and policies, is a socialist party. If they want to represent the huge disenfranchised middle ground, they need to forget the “sins” of the Lib Dems over tuition fees and questionable campaign tactics and link up with them to give the centre a voice.

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