Tag: Alex Salmond

2015: TORY TRIUMPH,TERROR AND REFUGEES

 

 The year has been book ended by acts of terror that reminded us that however much progress we make in computerisation, medical research or space travel, mankind’s capacity for violence is still there. The murderous Parisian attacks on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo came in January, the one on the Bataclan Theatre in November. In between the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees tested the European Union to its limits. Linking the terror and the refugees was the widening war in Syria. It led to a decision that the UK should bomb Daesh with as yet unknown consequences for British politics.

What we do know is that in all likelihood 2015 saw the establishment of Conservative government in Britain until 2025. The run up to the contest in may was marked by squabbles over the TV debates and a skillful March budget by George Osborne where he determined that the Tories would fight the election on their Long Term Economic Plan. It was effective in reminding voters of the recovery that had taken place already and casting doubt on their Labour opponent’s economic competence. Ed Miliband made little headway with his plans for a mansion tax and freezing energy bills. However the Tories believed until the close of poll on May 7th that they had not done enough to win a majority. They were helped over the line by the surge in support for the Scottish Nationalists. The prospect of Ed Miliband and Alex Salmond running the country drove wavering voters into the Tory camp.

General Elections are always a time when the old guard hand on to new faces so 2015 saw northern legends like Jack Straw, David Blunkett and William Hague leave the Commons along with lesser lights like Grimsby’s Austin Mitchell and Salford’s Hazel Blears. The Class of ’15 will take time to build their reputations but quick out of the blocks has been left winger Cat Smith in Lancaster and William Wragg, the new Tory MP for Hazel Grove.

The year has also seen the final passing of two of the twentieth century’s leading Chancellors, Denis Healey and Geoffrey Howe. A miserable year for the Liberal Democrats was compounded by the death of their former leader Charles Kennedy.

General Election victory led to Tory hubris in the summer with plans for new laws curbing the unions, extra surveillance powers and cuts to tax credits. On the latter measure, by the autumn the Prime Minister was reminded that although he had a majority, it was only a slim one.

The most surprising consequence of the General Election was the victory of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, the most unlikely holder of the post since the 1920s. A combination of reckless decisions by some MPs in nominating him was followed by a surge of support motivated by years of frustration at the approach of New Labour. The Oldham by-election has entrenched Corbyn’s leadership with most of the parliamentary party in frustrated murmuring revolt.

It has been a bad year for the European Union. The long drawn out crisis over Greek debt followed by the divisions over the refugee migration may help turn Brits against the EU in such numbers that we vote to leave.

Devolution has moved on erratically across the North this year with deals being struck in Sheffield and Liverpool but Leeds and Lancashire still mired in disputes with North Yorkshire and Wyre Councils before packages can be agreed. Tony Lloyd was installed as interim elected mayor of Greater Manchester and as the year ended it looked as if Joe Anderson would head up the Liverpool City Region in succession to Phil Davies of Wirral.

But for devolution and the Northern Powerhouse to mean anything to ordinary people, it has to achieve things that matter. It looks as if transport might be the first such activity. After “pausing” the electrification of the Leeds-Manchester line in the summer, the government ended the year with substantial announcements on rail investment.

Have a peaceful Christmas.

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDA MANIA.

 

 

BUSINESS TO SAVE THE UNION?

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

JUST JIM 118.

 

RECOVERY THREATENED BY REFERENDUM MANIA.

 

A sure way of destabilising the fragile economic recovery was for David Cameron to back not one but two referenda in the space of three years.Referenda that could reduce the UK, or what’s left of it, to a basket case.

 

I wrote some months ago that by the end of 2017 the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could easily be preparing to leave the European Union. There was very little debate in England about Scottish independence, just a complacent feeling that the Scots would not vote yes.

 

Things are different now. English political leaders have been scrambling North stuffing Alex Salmond’s mouth with gold.

 

The last minute business revolt against the real prospect of an independent Scotland will probably save the day, but it will be a close run thing.

 

The experience of the last week might give people a flavour of what it will be like if we vote to come out of the European Union in three years time. With the world the way it is, this is no time to embrace separatism whether it is offered by the Scot Nats or UKIP. They offer a road to enmity and disruption.

 

So why have we come to the point where next Thursday there is the possibility of us losing the Scottish part of our British family? Alex Salmond and his deputy are very able politicians. They stand out partly because the major figures in the other parties all decided to ply their trade at Westminster leaving the B team in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP has played the patriotic card well, particularly with the young voters, who perhaps don’t ask the hard economic questions.

 

The referendum comes at a time of mass disillusion with conventional politics. “Give us something different” is the cry. In the European elections it was UKIP, next week it will be the SNP. In Scotland to use Mr Cameron’s words, they hate the f_____g Tories, they yearn for a more socialist programme than North London boy Ed Miliband is offering and the Lib Dems are seen as Tory lackeys in the Coalition.

 

Although Salmond has played his hand well, the gaping hole at the heart of his case has been exposed.

He relies on the claim that the Chancellor is bluffing about the currency issue. Perhaps he is. Perhaps “reasonable logic” would kick in as the enormity of disaggregating the two countries hit home and the negotiations got under way. But the mood of English people might not allow it. They may say “they voted for independence, let them get on with it.” A North West MP expressed those exact sentiments to me at Westminster this week.

 

But what if against the odds the vote is for independence? The Bank of England is poised for emergency action on Friday to stabilise the currency, and there will be calls for the Prime Minister’s resignation. We would face the prospect of electing a House of Commons next May where 59 MPs would be leaving within a year. And that hobbled parliament is meant to negotiate our future in the EU.

 

Its a great time to plan business investment!

 

LABOUR PANIC IN HEYWOOD AND MIDDLETON.

 

Jim Dobbin was a kind decent man and we all mourn his passing. My condolences go to his family. His death put Labour in a difficult position. They rightly wanted to respect family feelings which would normally require that the by election writ should not be moved before the funeral.

 

But the party fear that given enough time UKIP might be able to exploit voters who feel “left behind” by modern politics in this traditional Labour seat. They wanted to avoid a contest where the UKIP bandwagon, flushed by the inevitable victory of Douglas Carswell in Clacton on October 9th would roll on to Heywood and Middleton. Now both contests will be fought on the same day and UKIP’s resources will be stretched.

 

 

 

 

 

 

WARSI QUIT OVER EUROPE TOO.

 

 

TORY TURMOIL.

 

No sooner had the Tory cat (David Cameron) gone off to Portugal, than the mice began to play back home. Sayeeda Warsi’s resigned and Boris Johnson threw down his Westminster gauntlet.

 

The press has concentrated on the criticism of the Prime Minister’s stance on Gaza but Warsi’s statement also contained significant criticism of his European Union policy and this was picked up by North West Tory MEP Saj Karim.

 

Karim began life as a Lib Dem MEP and clearly retains his pro European credentials. He joined Warsi’s criticism of the government’s Gaza policy saying Israel was being given more room than any other state but then went on to refer to the “directional shift” in European policy. He told the BBC that we would miss the advice of Ken Clarke and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve and could be embarked on a path to undermine our ability to negotiate concessions from the EU.

 

Ken Clarke has been the most prominent pro European Tory member of this Cabinet and Grieve’s sacking is widely believed to have been to clear the way for a fundamental reshaping of our relationship with the European Court of Human Rights.

 

Warsi’s resignation may be quickly forgotten, particularly if the Gaza ceasefire holds. However her criticism of the sacking of pro European cabinet members may be the first sign of a real fightback by the EU positive wing of the Conservative Party who have been silenced by the Eurosceptic madness that has swept the party up to now.

 

NO LEAP FOR THE SALMON.

 

After years of being called dull and boring the former Tory Chancellor Sir Geoffrey Howe had one great speech in him and it helped to bring down the mighty Margaret Thatcher.

 

Another former Chancellor, Alistair Darling has been similarly criticised for being dull. However on Tuesday those distinctive black eyebrows were fairly bristling during his debate with the leader of the Scottish Government, Alex Salmond. Darling believes we are better together and hammered away at what an independent Scotland would do for a currency. Mr Salmond, who had a great reception in Liverpool the other week, was deflated by the onslaught. It may have been Darling’s Geoffrey Howe moment and it may have saved the Union.

 

WHERE’S WARRINGTON?

I was travelling back from London the other day and it soon became apparent that the lady in front of me had got the wrong train. Instead of getting off at Milton Keynes, I told her the first stop would be Warrington. She phoned her waiting father with the bad news and in desperate tones asked him “Where is Warrington?”

 

The question had the fearful tone that I expect Russian dissidents expressed when they were told they were heading for exile in Novosibirsk, Siberia.

 

I don’t think she had ventured out of the South East before. The episode highlighted once again for me that for people living in the London area, the North is another country. It is a mindset which has influenced government policy and led to massive underinvestment in our transport infrastructure.

 

Let’s see if that’s going to change. It has taken years to begin to repair the damage done by the coalition in dismantling regional policy but now our big cities like Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool are trying to force the Chancellor to make real his pledge to create a powerhouse of the northern cities.

 

It may help that George Osborne is the MP for Tatton and will listen to demands for £15bn spending on trans Pennine transport links. He’s called the plan “imaginative” and promises a full response in the Autumn Statement.

Let’s see if big city power can deliver.

 

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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SCOTLAND: THE GAME’S AFOOT!

Alex Salmond will be hoping that the Commonwealth Games now under way in Glasgow will help his flagging campaign for Scottish independence.

But just before the sporting contest got started I had a chance to catch up with him on his last foray into England before referendum day. Salmond seems to like Liverpool. Last year he got a great reception in St George’s Hall when he shamelessly played to Scouse antipathy to London by saying Scots and northerners all suffered from remote government from the capital.

He was at it again last week but the difference is the game’s afoot big time with the referendum now just eight weeks away. The Scottish Labour Party had brought down a red double decker bus with Vote No slogans all over it and parked it outside St George’s Hall. Batteries of TV cameras were in attendance along with BBC luminaries like Alan Little and Laura Kuenssberg.

He was speaking to a smaller audience of northern business people but the message was the same; Scotland and the North suffer economically from centralised government. He prayed in aid the former Liverpool Walton MP Eric Heffer who he claimed supported a young Alex Salmond in his efforts to get Scottish independence in the 1970s. Heffer’s successor Peter Kilfoyle seemed to be of the same mind. He told me he’d been on the Mersey Ferry earlier with Salmond who’d got a warm reception from the passengers. “If I was in Scotland, I’d vote for independence” declared Kilfoyle.

Salmond’s speech consisted of a battery of statistics designed to prove his case for independence but he also sought to address a growing anxiety that we in the North are going to lose out between a powerful Scotland and a dynamic South East of England. He had plans for high speed rail connections between the North and Scotland and wanted northern business people to cooperate in a cross border forum.

The Chancellor has made it clear that there could be no shared currency after independence. Salmond continues to insist that Mr Osborne is bluffing. It is the greatest weakness in his case and one that could be decisive for wavering Scots.

I have always believed that Salmond’s real project was to get the maximum amount of devolved power without full independence. I reminded him that he had wanted a third question on the ballot paper to accommodate this. He denied my suggestion that this showed a secret lack of confidence by the Scottish Nationalists that they could achieve the ultimate prize.

The three main UK parties have all promised further devolution of tax raising power if the Scots stay in the UK, so I suggested to Mr Salmond he would be a winner whichever way the vote goes. He replied that you can never trust the promises of English politicians.

The Commonwealth Games will fill the Scots with pride in what they can do for themselves. This will be followed by commemorations of the start of the First World War when Scots played a noble part in fighting alongside the other nations that made up the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Then the Scots will vote.

WELL DONE WIRRAL!

Over 200,000 golf fans attended the Open at Hoylake with Phil Davies, the leader of Wirral Council and the Liverpool City Region, telling me £75m had been spent in the local economy.

Wirral Council staff were busy lobbying international guests about economic projects ranging from offshore wind to the massive Wirral Waters redevelopment. They are hoping for a major announcement shortly about a car components plant at the end of the M53 to service Halewood, Ellesmere Port and Crewe.

Along with the International Festival of Business promoted by Liverpool Council, our local authorities have done their best to promote the city region to the world this summer.