THERE WON’T BE A GENERAL ELECTION.

 

 

REMEMBER THE TRUTH ABOUT TURKEYS AND CHRISTMAS

 

There is much idle talk amongst political commentators about a General Election being just around the corner. Why would the Conservatives, who have just been caught out badly with an unnecessary election, risk another one? In May Labour appeared to be way behind in the polls, now they are level pegging and would probably emerge the largest party.

The argument goes that the Tories would have to hold an election if they changed Prime Minister. This is nonsense. Mrs May is looking more confident and cheerful since her coughing fit in Manchester. It wouldn’t surprise me if she sacks Boris Johnson and Phil Hammond in a reshuffle. But let us suppose for a moment that the Grant Shapps of this world haven’t gone away and force a leadership election. In my view the next Tory Prime Minister takes office and carries on. There is no constitutional requirement to go to the country, nor is there any precedent since 1955 when Eden took over from Churchill and went straight into a General Election.

Since then there have been four occasions when the Prime Minister has changed during a parliament. In 1963 Lord Home (the Jacob Rees Mogg of his day) succeeded Harold Macmillan and waited for the scheduled General Election in 1964. Jim Callaghan took over from Harold Wilson in 1976 and served for three years till defeated in a vote of no confidence. John Major succeeded Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and served out the rest of her term before winning the scheduled election in 1992. The Prime Minister most under pressure to seek a fresh mandate was Gordon Brown, but in 2007 he finally decided not to risk it.

Some say the Democratic Unionist Party will renounce their deal with the Tories if the Brexit negotiations require the island of Ireland to be treated as one entity for customs purposes. Possibly, but when will things ever be so good for the DUP again? It will be a long time before they get a billion pounds from a British political party again.

I expect this government to totter on hopelessly divided on Brexit and incapable of a proper negotiation with the European Union. Hopefully there will be a massive change in public opinion on leaving the EU. Then all bets will be off for the future shape of politics in Britain.

THE CATALONIA CONUNDRUM.

I normally have a settled opinion on most political issues but the Catalonia demand for independence really leaves me hopelessly on the fence.

I believe in a European Union where the regions of individual countries have powerful devolved government to bring decision making close to the people and to tackle inequalities like the North South divide. That is why I believed in John Prescott’s model of development agencies held accountable by assemblies.

But regional government should be about those principles of more equal wealth distribution within countries. The Catalan region is the wealthiest in Spain and many supporters of independence don’t want to share their prosperity with poorer areas. In Italy the Northern League has the same attitude to the south of their country.

One thing I am sure of is that using violence against the Catalan people or suspending their devolved powers will solve nothing.

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ULSTER OR NORTHERN POWERHOUSE?

 

Where does the billion pound bribe for the Democratic Unionist Party leave the drive for devolution in the North? It is not just a question of where the government will put its money. It is also a question of political purpose.

There are plenty of reasons to fear that the May government will take their eye off the Northern Powerhouse (NP) project, but as I found out this week, the answer may lie within our own resources.

First, let’s look at the downside. The NP Minister, Andrew Percy, quit at the reshuffle. That suggests he didn’t see the post as being regarded as important in Whitehall. Then comes news that David Brown is leaving his post as Chief Executive of Transport for the North (TfN) to go to the private sector. Brown has done a good job in translating all the fine talk around the NP into something the public can see as a benefit. TfN will soon have statutory status as the voice of northern transport, will have a big say in rail franchising and this autumn common ticketing will start to be rolled out on our buses and trains. But will Brown’s successor be as good?

In further assessing the drag factors on the NP we have a weak government which will be forced to pay more attention to Belfast than Bradford. Brexit will consume vast amounts of ministers’ time until it hopefully grinds to a halt. While Greater Manchester and Merseyside have got their act together on elected mayors, the rest of the North is frankly a structural mess. George Osborne, the architect of the NP now spends his time using the London Evening Standard to get revenge on Theresa May for sacking him.

It is no wonder that Lord Adonis, head of the National Infrastructure Commission, joined top business organisations in demanding a high priority for infrastructure investment.

I think the government is distracted and we will need to raise our game to compete with those deal makers from Northern Ireland. For instance, why is it going to take till the autumn of 2018 to get the North’s Strategic Transport Plan approved? This emerged at a major transport conference in Manchester this week. We have talked for years about the need to upgrade east-west rail and road links. That is a higher priority for us than HS2. We know this, the government knows that is our position. David Brown told me this week that we’ve never had a statutory plan before. Well OK but delay on our part will just play into the hands of a government distracted by Brussels and Belfast. A government who sent a clearly unprepared Minister to the Manchester conference. In post for eight days junior transport minister, Jesse Norman, had no answer at all to a question about poor quality rolling stock in the North.

Things looked up thereafter though. Council leaders set out an impressive list of priorities. Cumbria wants to improve coastal rail, Lancashire the M65 corridor. Liverpool; resolve the opposition to links between the motorway network and the port. Cheshire; Crewe regeneration around the HS2 hub and Manchester preparing Piccadilly station for the combination of HS2, the northern Hub and improved links to Leeds.

Mayor Andy Burnham, quickly settling into his role as the voice of Greater Manchester, called for HS2 and Northern Powerhouse rail to be done together and Emma Degg, the new boss of the North West Business Leadership Team called for smaller northern towns to be remembered. It was a timely call in an era when there is a fixation on big cities.

There remains a huge gap between transport investment in the South East and North because it is much easier to satisfy Treasury cost benefit criteria when you can produce millions of commuters for any scheme. The conference was told of a vision and validate approach that should be adopted to get northern transport investment off the ground. The private sector will have a vital role in this.

So, we need to use existing powers to keep the Northern Powerhouse moving forward and if you want an acid test of how things are going look out for this. Will Northern Powerhouse rail or Crossrail 2 in London be first to get approval?

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MAY TO LAST TWO YEARS ?

 

 

WHO WANTS THE JOB NOW ?

Theresa May could remain as Prime Minister for at least two years. Does Boris Johnson, David Davis or most likely someone we’ve never considered really want the job at the moment ?

The Brexit talks will be long, tiring and are very unlikely to end well. There will be vicious recriminations from both sides in two years’ time. The hard Brexitiers are already expecting betrayal. The open Brexitiers won’t satisfy us Remainers even if they get some compromise on the single market and customs union. Whoever is Prime Minister in March 2019 will not receive the plaudits of a grateful nation but will be blamed as the country expels itself from the European Union in economic uncertainty and mutual recrimination.

So, it looks as if Mrs May will stagger through with the help of her friends from the Democratic Unionist Party. Jim Callaghan survived in minority government for three years in the seventies as did John Major when the Tory Euro rebels made life hell for him. How right Lord Heseltine is, Europe is the cancer at the heart of the Conservative Party.

There is talk of an all-party effort to try and reach consensus on what Britain wants in the Brexit talks. I think it unlikely Labour will enter that trap partly because hard left politicians never like to do deals with Tories and because Labour’s position on Brexit is confused. The party needs to realise that a lot of their new young supporters would prefer to stay in the EU. In these fluid times Kier Starmer, the able Shadow Minister for Exiting the EU should position the party so that if it becomes clear to most people that Brexit isn’t going to work, Labour can say that whilst they respected the 2016 vote, circumstances have changed so much that another vote is needed. This could provide the basis for a popular alliance when the next election comes.

FIRST PAST THE POST STRONG AND STABLE?

Once again, our first past the post (FPTP) system has thrown up monstrous unfairness with the SDP being generously rewarded with 35 seats for a million votes and the Green Party getting just one for their half million votes.

The Conservatives are the greatest defenders of FPTP saying it gives us stable government. Well that’s been blown out of the water by the 2010 and 2017 results.

The Tories would have won if just 401 more people had voted for them. They lost four seats by less than 31 and another four by less than 250. So, bring on those boundary changes! Remember the constituency boundary map was going to be redrawn for 2020 and would have helped the Tories. An election pundit friend of mine said it was “madness” for the Conservatives to go to the country again on boundaries containing undersized Labour seats.

The problem now is will Mrs May dare propose the changes in next week’s Queen’s Speech or will it be ditched like most of the manifesto.

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