REMEMBER THE ROCHDALE CHIPPY CHANCELLOR!

 

THE BUDGET AND BUSINESS RATES.

The coverage of the row over the hike in business rates has shown once again that the media generally sees things from a London and south of England perspective.

There are rumours that the Chancellor is going to take steps to soften the blow of this overdue review of business rates. If he does, it will mean he is not listening to the wise and under reported views of the leader of Rochdale Council. Richard Farnell has pointed out that he knows a chippy in Rochdale that is paying more per square metre than Harrods and says the south is squealing because it is being asked to pay its fair share. Farnell claims that most businesses in greater Manchester will be better off. Spot on Richard. Not before time this review is reflecting the soaring value of property in the overheated south eastern economy whereas some parts of the North have seen property values decrease. That should be reflected in what firms have to pay.

It is true that southern businesses shouldn’t be subjected to huge rises all at once, but the answer to that is for gutless politicians to review business rates more regularly irrespective of whether there is an election on the horizon. It is also true that we need to review the whole system to reflect the growth of on-line businesses that pay nothing, but that is for the future. If the Chancellor gives concessions next week it will be a victory for the effective southern Tory lobbying exercise and for south centric reporting by the media.

MAJOR BUDGET TASKS.

As we saw in his first autumn statement, Chancellor Philip Hammond is not inclined to dramatic and colourful gestures. Indeed, his most surprising announcement in November was to say that this will be the last spring Budget. Signals have been sent out that rebadged austerity is to continue with departments told to find savings in the run up to the next election.

It is true that the national debt stands at £1.8 trillion and the deficit is on track to be £68bn this year, but if this means we are set for a cautious budget then major problems facing the nation will continue to get worse.

Leaving the enormous uncertainties of the Brexit negotiations to one side there is a widespread belief that the government’s recent announcements on housing and skills are not adequate. The crisis in the NHS and particularly social care are laid bare on a daily basis. On the latter point, will we see the Chancellor break with caution and raise the possibility of dipping into people’s assets after they die to fund the rising cost of social care? The political problem is that, in opposition in 2007, the Tories denounced the suggestion, proposed by Labour, as a “death tax” and unveiled posters with the slogan “RIP OFF”.

However, some courage is required and with all the opposition parties so weak at the moment, there is no excuse for a lack of political courage in the budget.

GORTON PARLIAMENTARY SELECTION.

If Labour is serious about having MPs who reflect the area, then an Asian candidate should be chosen for the Gorton seat left vacant by the death of Sir Gerald Kaufman.

Although North West MEP, Afzal Khan, is the frontrunner, don’t be surprised if someone from outside that constituency or even Greater Manchester is chosen to avoid internal rivalries.

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NORTHERN POWERHOUSE BACK ON TRACK.

 

 

It would be easy to be cynical about this week’s Cabinet meeting that was held in Cheshire. Ministers forced out of their Whitehall offices to gather in the frozen North.A quick photo opportunity, meetings with hand picked business people( but definitely not the public), then back to London.

On this occasion however there was a real point in coming North.After a wobble last summer Theresa May seems to be taking the Northern Powerhouse (NP) seriously.As part of the new industrial strategy,  the NP is getting a £556m cash boost.Much of this will be channeled through the Local Enterprise Partnerships who,its hoped will begin to raise their profiles as engines of growth,productivity and skills. Among the specific schemes are £10m for small businesses in Greater Manchester and Cheshire involved in the new industries around life sciences. Our heritage is not forgotten with plans for a major revamp for Blackpool’s Winter gardens. The resort hopes it will encourage the political parties back from Birmingam and Manchester for their annual conferences. I think the hotel offer will have to improve before that happens.

The main thrust of the new industrial strategy is for government to target help on particular sectors were future jobs will come from. Juergen Maier,the boss of Siemens UK will head up a review into the impact of digitalisation across industry. Other sectors indentified include life sciences,the nuclear and creative industries.

We have seen many industrial strategies come and go and yet UK productivity remains stubbornly behind our competitors. It is an issue that the new leader of the  North West Busienss Leadership Team will be taking up. It is to be welcomed that they have appointed a woman, Emma Degg. The North West business scene remains very male, if not stale. Degg used to work for the North West Development Agency which was doing good work in all these fields until it was scrapped for petty political reasons by the Coalition government.

The Business Secretary Greg Clarke is in charge of this strategy. He is one of the better Tory Cabinet Ministers having gained a good reputation when he held the Local Government portfolio. He has identified ten strategic pillars. We shall see if they are Greg’s ten pillars of wisdom.Besides the obvious ones of skills and science research, there is to be a drive to improve government procurement and deliver clean energy growth. Restoring the subsidies would be a start.

Improving productivity is a long term challenge which requires better management and a better educated and motivated workforce.In that connection let’s hope the specialist maths schools and technical colleges mark a move away from an excessive emphasis on university education. Vocational qualifications will be as useful as a degree in the next few years.

The question remains how robust this industrial strategy will be as the consequences of Brexit and the Trump Presidency begin to kick in.

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A TERRIBLE YEAR FOR THE CENTRE LEFT

 

THE CENTRE FALLS APART.

Let us hope 2016 represents the darkest hour for the centre left in Britain, Europe and the world. It is not just the defeats suffered by people like Hillary Clinton and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the victories of Donald Trump and re-election of Jeremy Corbyn. It is the inability of the centre left to have any convincing answers to the problems of globalisation, terrorism and immigration. Because of this, Leave won in Britain, Putin was strengthened in Russia and President Obama became impotent in the Middle East.

2016 has seen a weakening of belief in organisations that have become part of the post 1945 architecture particularly the European Union, NATO and free trade. Comparisons have been made with the 1930s. They are exaggerated because we do not, yet, have large overtly fascist parties backed by tacit or overt military support that prevailed in that troubled decade. What we do have is a growing populist movement headed by politicians from right field offering to sweep away the old parties with their jaded remedies. The populist right offers simple solutions to complex issues to voters disillusioned by politicians who have failed to deliver for all. The other valid comparison with the thirties is even more worrying. These populist politicians have people to blame, usually immigrants. This has led to increases in racial abuse and worse.

The demand for instant solutions is made worse by social media with its opportunities for “echo chamber” fervour and vile abuse. There is a weakening support for democracy. The warning signs of how quickly things can disintegrate came with the razor wire fences erected in the Balkans against immigrants and refugees.

Our own EU Referendum showed how foolish David Cameron was to put a highly complex issue to a binary vote. His departure is one of the best things to happen this year. As the Brexit crisis drags on he will be increasingly be seen as one of the worst Prime Ministers in our history.

The centre left needs to assert the value of international and domestic cooperation, express enthusiasm for the European ideal, point out that we are in a global world whilst developing policies on immigration, a tough approach to tax havens and bank control.

SHADOW OVER THE NORTHERN POWERHOUSE.

The year has seen major figures at the heart of this important project leave, or prepare to leave, the stage. The Chancellor George Osborne paid the price for calling the EU Referendum, although he has formed the Northern Powerhouse Partnership think tank. That’s not to be confused with the Northern Powerhouse Partnership set up by Andrew Percy, the Minister in charge of devolution to the North.

There was a period of uncertainty about the government’s commitment to the Northern Powerhouse which saw the sad loss of Lord Jim O’Neill of Gatley who’d been a strong advocate of more power for the cities. We are also now in the final months of Sir Howard Bernstein as Chief Executive of Manchester Council who has helped shape the major devolution deal in his city and in wider areas.

With government uncertainty and local tensions a complex patchwork of devolution has developed during 2016 across the North. Greater Manchester has most powers with the Liverpool City Region resolving some of its internal difficulties to gain a reasonable devolution package for the incoming city region mayor.. Leeds has not resolved its issues with surrounding districts. HS2 was confirmed but despite the growing importance of the organisation Transport For the North, the Secretary of State, Chris Grayling, is saying he’s waiting to hear about the plans we have for improving East West connections over the Pennines. They’ve been around for years!

People need to see practical benefits from all this and want a say in what has been a behind closed doors exercise. The centrifugal forces of London are always there.

Despite everything I hope you have as merry a Christmas as possible.

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‘ALEX FERGUSON’ SNAG FOR MANCHESTER COUNCIL

 

IN GIANT’S FOOTSTEPS.

How does Manchester Council avoid the “Alex Ferguson” problem in finding a successor to the retiring Chief Executive, Sir Howard Bernstein? You know the problem, Brown after Blair and Moyes after Ferguson.

Bernstein has worked for the local authority for 45 years and for the last 18 years has been Chief Executive. In that time the city has left behind the trauma of the IRA bomb in 1996 to become the leading city in the North. Throughout Sir Howard has sent a message to the private sector that the city is open for business. As a result Manchester has the feel of a young city for entrepreneurs that can look London in the eye.

His other achievement has been to respect the political process. Nobody elected him. The people’s mandate is held by Sir Richard Leese who has been leader throughout Sir Howard’s tenure, a remarkable partnership in its longevity and effectiveness. Such partnerships are rare and can go wrong. We remember the bust up in Liverpool between Chief Executive David Henshaw and leader Mike Storey. Bernstein and Leese have known where the boundary lies between local government officer and politician.

Bernstein is widely regarded as one of the leading figures in local government and the former Chancellor George Osborne recognised this in his efforts to found the Northern Powerhouse.

It has not all been plain sailing for Sir Howard. He failed to get the congestion charge and the BBC to locate their new headquarters in the city. Critics say he was more interested in shiny new buildings than the council’s basic services. He has been dismissive of charges that the devolution deal lacked democratic endorsement.

That said the town hall is losing a giant and the question is, who will succeed him?

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES.

The first thing to say is that there aren’t hordes of candidates out there qualified for this, one of the top posts in local government.

One immediately looks at the current Chief Executives in Greater Manchester who have helped in the creation of the Combined Authority. It would be great for a woman to get this job. Donna Hall, holds the top job at Wigan Council and recently won an award for transformational leadership. Theresa Grant used to work for Manchester Council, did a great job running the athlete’s village during the Commonwealth Games and is now Chief Executive at Trafford. Then there is Eamonn Boylan, who served for six years as Sir Howard’s deputy and is currently in charge at Stockport.

There is a strong possibility however that Manchester will want to cast its net wider and bring in a fresh face outside the current “Greater Manchester” family. Charlie Parker cut his teeth with the city’s Inner City Unit and is now Chief Executive of Westminster Council. Sean Harriss, formerly top man in Bolton, is now in charge at Lambeth.

At a recent Downtown event there was a suggestion that a “blue sky approach” might be taken bringing in someone with more of a business background. Would Charlie Cornish, Chief Executive of the Manchester Airport Group, fill the bill?

It will ultimately be a matter for Sir Richard Leese in what may be one of his last big decisions. Few would envy his “Alex Ferguson” dilemma.

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