A TERRIBLE YEAR FOR THE CENTRE LEFT

 

THE CENTRE FALLS APART.

Let us hope 2016 represents the darkest hour for the centre left in Britain, Europe and the world. It is not just the defeats suffered by people like Hillary Clinton and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the victories of Donald Trump and re-election of Jeremy Corbyn. It is the inability of the centre left to have any convincing answers to the problems of globalisation, terrorism and immigration. Because of this, Leave won in Britain, Putin was strengthened in Russia and President Obama became impotent in the Middle East.

2016 has seen a weakening of belief in organisations that have become part of the post 1945 architecture particularly the European Union, NATO and free trade. Comparisons have been made with the 1930s. They are exaggerated because we do not, yet, have large overtly fascist parties backed by tacit or overt military support that prevailed in that troubled decade. What we do have is a growing populist movement headed by politicians from right field offering to sweep away the old parties with their jaded remedies. The populist right offers simple solutions to complex issues to voters disillusioned by politicians who have failed to deliver for all. The other valid comparison with the thirties is even more worrying. These populist politicians have people to blame, usually immigrants. This has led to increases in racial abuse and worse.

The demand for instant solutions is made worse by social media with its opportunities for “echo chamber” fervour and vile abuse. There is a weakening support for democracy. The warning signs of how quickly things can disintegrate came with the razor wire fences erected in the Balkans against immigrants and refugees.

Our own EU Referendum showed how foolish David Cameron was to put a highly complex issue to a binary vote. His departure is one of the best things to happen this year. As the Brexit crisis drags on he will be increasingly be seen as one of the worst Prime Ministers in our history.

The centre left needs to assert the value of international and domestic cooperation, express enthusiasm for the European ideal, point out that we are in a global world whilst developing policies on immigration, a tough approach to tax havens and bank control.

SHADOW OVER THE NORTHERN POWERHOUSE.

The year has seen major figures at the heart of this important project leave, or prepare to leave, the stage. The Chancellor George Osborne paid the price for calling the EU Referendum, although he has formed the Northern Powerhouse Partnership think tank. That’s not to be confused with the Northern Powerhouse Partnership set up by Andrew Percy, the Minister in charge of devolution to the North.

There was a period of uncertainty about the government’s commitment to the Northern Powerhouse which saw the sad loss of Lord Jim O’Neill of Gatley who’d been a strong advocate of more power for the cities. We are also now in the final months of Sir Howard Bernstein as Chief Executive of Manchester Council who has helped shape the major devolution deal in his city and in wider areas.

With government uncertainty and local tensions a complex patchwork of devolution has developed during 2016 across the North. Greater Manchester has most powers with the Liverpool City Region resolving some of its internal difficulties to gain a reasonable devolution package for the incoming city region mayor.. Leeds has not resolved its issues with surrounding districts. HS2 was confirmed but despite the growing importance of the organisation Transport For the North, the Secretary of State, Chris Grayling, is saying he’s waiting to hear about the plans we have for improving East West connections over the Pennines. They’ve been around for years!

People need to see practical benefits from all this and want a say in what has been a behind closed doors exercise. The centrifugal forces of London are always there.

Despite everything I hope you have as merry a Christmas as possible.

Follow me at www.jimhancock.co.uk

LABOUR’S NORTHERN MAYORAL CHOICES

 

DOG’S BREAKFAST.

One senses that whoever wins the Labour leadership contest, they will never become Prime Minister and hold real power. So we must look elsewhere for Labour politicians who will affect our lives in the coming years.

The position of elected mayor for the city regions of Liverpool and Greater Manchester seem a reasonably safe bet. I say that with the important caveat that all Labour strongholds in the North may soon come under a challenge from UKIP. But presuming the new leader of UKIP hasn’t had time to get his/her ducks in a row, the two Labour politicians currently being chosen in party ballots in Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region will hold significant power.

Only those two areas will have elected mayors next May. Internal squabbling and a government distracted by Brexit has ensured that there will be no great roll out of elected mayors across the North come May.

Leeds may yet get its act together but it has been a painful process with competing demands for a Greater Yorkshire mayor competing with Leeds more city focussed approach. Then there was a fight over transport powers with North Yorkshire. It appears likely that Leeds will do a deal with Craven, Harrogate and Selby but politics is in the background. Some Tory MPs are pressing the new Communities Secretary Sajid Javid for more Tory districts to be included to prevent an inevitable Labour mayor being elected.

Warrington had the same concern in reverse, that an elected mayor including Cheshire could jeopardise Labour’s control of the town. In Lancashire Wyre district continues to hold out against a countywide elected mayor whilst Chorley wants to become a unitary authority.

It is all a bit of a mess. It is what you get when a government decides on the superficially democratic idea of allowing devolution to grow from the bottom up. It is a recipe for petty rivalry resulting in a chaotic pattern that voters don’t understand. We need regional government with only unitary authorities underneath, but we are where we are, so let’s look at who might win the Labour nominations.

TOPPLING BIG JOE?

Joe Anderson has been Labour’s elected mayor for the city of Liverpool for four years. The independent academic Michael Parkinson recently published a glowing report on his success. He listed Joe’s achievements including persuading a Tory government to devolve powers, the International Festival of Business, and the Exhibition Hall; all done against a background of massive public spending cuts. He had also raised the profile of the city, the central aim of this elected mayor project.

Anderson now wants to be mayor of the City Region and needs to deal with the perception that it would always be Liverpool first and Wirral, St Helens and Sefton second.

That is why Steve Rotheram, MP for Walton, is standing on a platform of “No borough left behind.” He says he will give more priority to the needs of the whole city region. He has remained as parliamentary aide to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn which might go down well with the current Labour membership.

Luciana Berger, MP for Wavertree, is seen as the outsider which is a shame because these positions were meant to see different faces coming to the fore. Her call for fresh leadership following Brexit seems to be falling on deaf ears.

TONY THE MAN TO BEAT.

In Greater Manchester Tony Lloyd is relying on big union support and the fact that he is currently doing the job of interim mayor to see him to the Labour nomination. Dynamic wouldn’t be the first word to come to mind in describing Lloyd’s political style but he has often been underestimated in his climb from Trafford councillor, to MP, to Minister, to chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party before seeing off Lord Smith of Wigan for his current job.

Ivan Lewis (MP Bury South) is bringing dynamism to the race with his challenge that so far the benefits of devolution have not gone far beyond Manchester.

Meanwhile Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham says his Cabinet experience will bring heft to the job. He wants more emphasis on council houses instead of plush flats and is challenging the Prime Minister to clarify her position on devolution. The Everton supporting Burnham is battling a perception that he is not Manc enough for the job.

The results of the Labour candidate ballots will be known in early August.

 

BIG JOE AND TOP MAN TONY FACE CHALLENGES.

 

BRINGING DOWN JOE.

The actual elections for the Mayors of the Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and possibly Leeds, won’t be held until next year. However in effect the people who are likely to occupy these posts will be settled this summer. Labour has an iron grip on our big northern cities and unless a spectacular independent candidate comes forward, whoever Labour members choose, will win.

The party’s choices will be made very soon. Nominations close on June 10th and the results will be announced on August 4th. Whoever thought it was a good idea to run these selections when the European Union Referendum was on needs their head examining. Labour Party members should be concentrating on getting out the Remain vote amongst its supporters. Without them the referendum could be lost. I guess it reflects leader Jeremy Corbyn’s lack of enthusiasm for the Remain campaign.

However the battle for the Labour nomination has been truly joined. The Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham declared this week for the Greater Manchester job. Meanwhile in the Liverpool City Region, 2 MPs Steve Rotheram and Luciana Berger are set to throw down the gauntlet to Big Joe Anderson. There are also suggestions that Barry Grunwald, the leader of St Helens, might try and rally Labour members who want a candidate from outside Liverpool.

Joe Anderson has just started his second term as elected mayor of the city of Liverpool. He got a glowing report on his first period in office from the boss of the Heseltine Institute, Professor Michael Parkinson. However not everyone shares the academic’s views. Critics believe Joe brings a “my way or the highway” approach to the office. They worry about his ability to reach out to the people of Wirral, Southport and St Helens. They remember his petulance when Phil Davies, the leader of Wirral, was originally chosen as chair of the Liverpool City Region instead of him.

There has been a sense of inevitability about Anderson gliding from one mayoralty to the other and this is what Rotheram, Berger or Grunwald will have to combat.

Grunwald is quite a character, inheriting the feisty tradition of his predecessor Marie Rimmer. If he stands he will need to work hard to get name recognition across the city region, but he may be able to play on the fear that a Liverpool politician won’t represent the interests of the other councils.

Joe Anderson is now likely to have to battle with two MPs in the city. Steve Rotheram is the amiable MP for Walton and was a popular traditional mayor of the city some years ago. He has family and work connections with Knowsley, St Helens and Halton and is close to Andy Burnham. They would form a powerful alliance for a North West version of the Northern Powerhouse. Efforts may be made to depict him as a Corbynista. He is the leader’s Parliamentary Private Secretary but Rotheram nominated Burnham for leader and will want to portray himself as a good Labour man first and foremost.

Merseyside politics is very male and a female elected mayor would send out the sort of positive messages that Sadiq Khan’s election in London has done. Wirral South’s Alison McGovern was thinking of standing but is heavily identified with the Blairite Progress movement and is unlikely to run. So what about Luciana Berger? She is bright and personable but will have to deal with the, no doubt unfair, feeling that she is a posh outsider from London.

BURNISHING BURNHAM.

Sir Richard Leese recently expressed his disappointment at Tony Lloyd’s tenure as interim mayor of Greater Manchester. It is a blow for Lloyd as he seeks the post permanently. Leese is now believed to be backing Andy Burnham.

The Shadow Home Secretary’s decision to enter the contest is significant. He has Big Beast status in this municipal contest but it has caused dismay among some Labour supporters for what it says about Labour’s chances of winning the 2020 General Election. Burnham has decided that the only way he can be effective is to run Greater Manchester with no chance of becoming Home Secretary. He represents Leigh and so is not from the Manchester City elite. But will he be any match for the Bernstein/Leese partnership, the powerful Chief Executive/ Leader pairing that has dominated for 20 years?

The other candidate, Ivan Lewis, the Bury South MP, has made it clear that he thinks the devolution agenda has been too Manchester focused and concentrated on economic priorities at the expense of social ones.

It all means a high summer of high drama for Labour Party members in our big conurbations.

 

CORBYN SAFE FOR NOW

 

Labour are stuck with Jeremy Corbyn but have little prospect of winning the 2020 General Election. That looks to be the situation with many results still to come in today, including the vital London mayor election.

The Labour leader did better in England and Wales than his critics thought he would, but coming third to the Tories in Scotland means the party will lack the ballast of 40 Scottish Labour seats it would need to win in 2020.

That is why the Shadow Home Secretary and Leigh MP Andy Burnham is considering running for elected Mayor of Greater Manchester. He clearly doesn’t see the prospect of holding one of the major offices of state as very likely in 2020 and may settle for running Greater Manchester. Its a big job but not as big as being Home Secretary. Andy Burnham knows it will be 2025 at least before Labour form a government. By then we may have the realignment of political parties that I have written about before, but for now we must get back to what happened overnight.

Some commentators and Jeremy Corbyn’s enemies were poised to write off the Labour leader overnight.

The truth is that Labour were at a high point going into these elections following years of progress since they lost the 2010 General Election. It is a mystery to me that Labour spokespeople (including Corbyn) didn’t make this point more forcefully. All the easy wards to win had been won in the last five years and further progress would be difficult.

The most interesting northern result so far is in Stockport where Labour look set to gain minority control, ending a long era of the Lib Dems being in charge. On a night when there were signs of a slight Lib Dem recovery, the party self destructed in the town. A botched consultation on the market was followed by a nightmare evening which saw the Lib Dem leader Sue Derbyshire lose her seat and a Lib Dem councillor defect to Labour.

Joe Anderson was comfortably re-elected as Mayor of Liverpool but shortly the city is expected to revert to a leader/cabinet model as Joe stands for election to be Mayor of the Liverpool City Region.

Labour fended off a Tory challenge in West Lancashire but the Conservative flagship council of Trafford remained blue.

So where do the parties stand this weekend as they return to campaigning on the momentous issue of our membership of the European Union?

Parties in government usually start a rapid decline in local support once they are in national office. This hasn’t happened to the Tories despite their splits over Europe, probably because of Labour’s weak leadership and disarray over anti-Semitism. The Conservatives will be encouraged by holding Trafford and the performance of Ruth Davidson, their leader in Scotland, who may have a wider national role one day.

Labour are in stalemate with the results not bad enough for an immediate coup against Corbyn but with no prospect of winning in 2020. The Shadow Chancellor John McDonald has had a good campaign. He appears more sure footed than his leader and if Labour is to have a hard left leader, perhaps it should be him.

Stockport is a further blow to the Lib Dems but partly due to local factors, elsewhere in the North there are signs of a modest recovery after five dreadful years.

UKIP have made a few gains in places like Bolton but their effectiveness in taking decisions on local government issues instead of just banging on about Europe, remains a big question.

Now the battle for our membership of the European Union resumes, let’s see some passion from the Remain camp.